Stocks Save Bonds From Modest Losses

Stocks Save Bonds From Modest Losses

You won't always be able to count on the market dynamics we've seen over the past few weeks, but during that time, they've been pretty reliable.  Specifically, steep losses in stocks have been helping the bond market more often than not, and today was another example. Bonds started out in slightly weaker territory after the PPI data suggested higher PCE inflation.  PCE doesn't come out for 2 weeks, and PPI's top line numbers were good, but markets care more about PCE, hence the paradoxical reaction. Stocks began swooning in earnest in the 11am hour, and bond yields followed suit. After topping out at 4.35%, 10yr yields fell to 4.25+ before leveling off. 

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Saved By Stocks Again

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.61 -0.14 10YR 4.299% +0.030% 3/14/2025 5:06AM EST
Seemingly overnight (i.e. over the past 30 days when it comes to markets reacting to economic data), the CPI and PPI inflation numbers that normally impact bonds have been overlooked in favor of a handful of line items buried within each report.  The line items in question are those that impact the PCE price index (released 2 weeks from now). In today's case, those specific line items pointed toward higher PCE inflation even though headline/core PPI inflation was lo...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.78% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 6.23% -0.01% 3/13/2025
Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in just over 2 weeks yesterday and they were on track to remain unchanged today. In fact, the average lender offered the exact same 30yr fixed rate when this morning's initial barrage of rate sheets came out. Lenders typically publish their first rates of the day around 10am ET, and they prefer to avoid any do-overs. But because rates are based on bonds, when the underlying bond market moves enough, lenders can opt to update their of...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Mar 14
10:00AM Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) Mar 63.1 64.7
10:00AM Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Mar 3.5%
10:00AM Mar U Mich conditions Mar 65 65.7
10:00AM Mar Michigan Consumer Expectations Final Mar 64.3 64
10:00AM Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Mar 4.3%
1:00PM Mar/14 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Mar/14 486
1:00PM Mar/14 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Mar/14 592
Monday, Mar 17
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales YoY Feb 4.2%
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales Control Group MoM Feb -0.8%
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM Feb -0.5%
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales (%) Feb 0.7% -0.9%
8:30AM Mar NY Fed Manufacturing Mar 5.7
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) Feb 0.5% -0.4%
10:00AM Jan Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv Jan 0.4% -0.1%
10:00AM Jan Business Inventories (% ) Jan -0.2%
10:00AM Mar NAHB housing market indx Mar 42
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 76
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.200%
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.075%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 68
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
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There's a lot for financial markets to digest at the moment. Over the past few weeks, the net effect of that digestion has been good for bonds/rates and bad for stocks. But the prevailing correlation broke down this week and few people in the U.S. truly understand why. That's forgivable, considering there has been a lot to react to in terms of economic data and fiscal updates. Monday's weaker&n... READ MORE