Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker
Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker
Friday's trading session was the most uneventful of the week. It began with moderate losses in the overnight session in concert with stock market gains. Some traders attributed this to improved odds of avoiding a government shutdown by tonight's deadline. The only scheduled economic data was the Consumer Sentiment report which has fallen by the wayside to some extent as the results are increasingly discounted as being clouded by political affiliations of respondents. Nonetheless, the uptick in inflation expectations was notable and worth a bit of extra weakness in bonds at the time. Even so, bonds remains well within the range set by yesterday's trading. The result is an "inside day" in market jargon, which one could either read as "indecisive" or "boring." We'd lean toward the latter.
Moderately weaker overnight in concert with stock market gains. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.303
Some weakness following uptick in consumer inflation expectations. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.317
Calm and sideways. 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.296. MBS down 2 ticks (.06)
Losing some ground in PM hours. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.313
Just a hair weaker. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.8bps and 4.318.
Saved By Stocks Again
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Mar 14 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Mar | 57.9 | 63.1 | 64.7 |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Mar | 3.9% | 3.5% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar U Mich conditions | Mar | 63.5 | 65 | 65.7 |
| 10:00AM | Mar Michigan Consumer Expectations Final | Mar | 54.2 | 64.3 | 64.0 |
| 10:00AM | Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Mar | 4.9% | 4.3% | |
| 1:00PM | Mar/14 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | Mar/14 | 487 | 486 | |
| 1:00PM | Mar/14 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count | Mar/14 | 592 | 592 | |
| Monday, Mar 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales YoY | Feb | 4.2% | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Feb | -0.8% | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | Feb | -0.5% | ||
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales (%) | Feb | 0.7% | -0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar NY Fed Manufacturing | Mar | -1.9 | 5.7 | |
| 8:30AM | Feb Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Feb | 0.5% | -0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv | Jan | 0.4% | -0.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Jan Business Inventories (% ) | Jan | 0.3% | -0.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar NAHB housing market indx | Mar | 43 | 42 | |
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 76 | |||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.200% | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.075% | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 68 | |||
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
