Founder/CEO
Boss Mortgage, LLC
License:
NMLS #1455628 OR, WA, ID, CO, MT, CA
Company NMLS 2547821

Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker

Uneventful Friday, Even if Slightly Weaker

Friday's trading session was the most uneventful of the week.  It began with moderate losses in the overnight session in concert with stock market gains.  Some traders attributed this to improved odds of avoiding a government shutdown by tonight's deadline.  The only scheduled economic data was the Consumer Sentiment report which has fallen by the wayside to some extent as the results are increasingly discounted as being clouded by political affiliations of respondents. Nonetheless, the uptick in inflation expectations was notable and worth a bit of extra weakness in bonds at the time.  Even so, bonds remains well within the range set by yesterday's trading.  The result is an "inside day" in market jargon, which one could either read as "indecisive" or "boring."  We'd lean toward the latter.

Market Movement Recap
09:30 AM

Moderately weaker overnight in concert with stock market gains.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.303

10:03 AM

Some weakness following uptick in consumer inflation expectations.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.317

12:27 PM

Calm and sideways.  10yr up 2.6bps at 4.296.   MBS down 2 ticks (.06)

03:20 PM

Losing some ground in PM hours.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.313

04:49 PM

Just a hair weaker.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.8bps and 4.318.

Latest Video Analysis

Saved By Stocks Again

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.68 -0.07 10YR 4.279% +0.010% 3/13/2025 9:25PM EST
It's been an on-again, off-again week for bonds and several of their trading motivations.  Economic data has played its part at times, but not in any excessive way.  The same goes for the recently relevant "stock lever" (the tendency for higher stock prices to push bond yields higher and vice versa). It was the latter that was most noticeable in the overnight session with modestly higher stocks and bond yields.  The most basic assumption is that this ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.81% +0.03% 15YR Fixed 6.25% +0.02% 3/14/2025
Despite some ups and downs on a small scale, mortgage rates have been sideways in the bigger picture.  That's a good thing if the latest refi application data is any indication.  Demand is at the highest levels since October as rates have generally been holding near mid-October levels. Today was just another day in that regard.  Bonds (which dictate rates) were slightly weaker overnight (bond weakness implies higher rates). As as often been the case recentl...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Mar 14
10:00AM Mar Consumer Sentiment (ip) Mar 57.9 63.1 64.7
10:00AM Mar Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Mar 3.9% 3.5%
10:00AM Mar U Mich conditions Mar 63.5 65 65.7
10:00AM Mar Michigan Consumer Expectations Final Mar 54.2 64.3 64.0
10:00AM Mar Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Mar 4.9% 4.3%
1:00PM Mar/14 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count Mar/14 487 486
1:00PM Mar/14 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Mar/14 592 592
Monday, Mar 17
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales YoY Feb 4.2%
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales Control Group MoM Feb -0.8%
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM Feb -0.5%
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales (%) Feb 0.7% -0.9%
8:30AM Mar NY Fed Manufacturing Mar -1.9 5.7
8:30AM Feb Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) Feb 0.5% -0.4%
10:00AM Jan Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv Jan 0.4% -0.1%
10:00AM Jan Business Inventories (% ) Jan 0.3% -0.2%
10:00AM Mar NAHB housing market indx Mar 43 42
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 76
11:30AM 3-Month Bill Auction 4.200%
11:30AM 6-Month Bill Auction 4.075%
11:30AM 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) 68
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
Read My Latest Newsletter
Rates rocketed lower with stunning consistency starting in late February. They finally bounced last week, but rather than move back up to previous levels, they held in a relatively narrow, sideways range. That set the stage for a showdown this week. OK, a "showdown" may be a bit dramatic, but it's not an overstatement to say that rates were ready to embark on a new journey higher or lower, depe... READ MORE
Founder/CEO
Boss Mortgage, LLC
License:
NMLS #1455628 OR, WA, ID, CO, MT, CA
Company NMLS 2547821