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Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors reacted to weekend tariff news with a risk-off move. Stocks bounced shortly after the NYSE open and bond yields were pulled higher in concert. That prevailing correlation broke down around 3pm due to month/quarter end bond buying (3pm is the official close for bonds, even though trading continues until 5pm). There was no major reaction to econ data or Fed speakers today. The data becomes more relevant in the coming days.
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, Mar 31 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Mar Chicago PMI | Mar | 47.6 | 45.2 | 45.5 |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | Mar | -16.3 | -8.3 | |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 68 | |||
| 11:30AM | 26-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 76 | |||
| 11:30AM | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.070% | 4.085% | ||
| 11:30AM | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.205% | 4.190% | ||
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Corn | 2025 | 95.326M | 94.35M | 90.036M |
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Soy | 2025 | 83.495M | 83.82M | 86.51M |
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Wheat | 2025 | 45.35M | 46.50M | 47.498M |
| 12:00PM | 2025 Prospective Plantings - Cotton | 2025 | 9.867M | 10.17M | 10.673M |
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn | Mar | 8.15B | 8.13B | 12.074B |
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy | Mar | 1.91B | 1.90B | 3.1B |
| 12:00PM | Mar Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat | Mar | 1.24B | 1.22B | 1.57B |
| Tuesday, Apr 01 | |||||
| 8:55AM | Mar/29 Redbook yy (%) | Mar/29 | 4.8% | 5.6% | |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Mar | 50.2 | 49.8 | 52.7 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing New Orders | Mar | 45.2 | 48.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Mar | 69.4 | 65 | 62.4 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment | Mar | 44.7 | 47.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Feb USA JOLTS Job Openings | Feb | 7.568M | 7.63M | 7.74M |
| 10:00AM | Feb JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Feb | 3.195M | 3.266M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI | Mar | 49 | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| 10:00AM | Feb Construction spending (%) | Feb | 0.7% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Services Index | Mar | -11.3 | 4.6 | |
| 10:30AM | Mar Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | Mar | 1.3 | 8.2 | |
| 10:40AM | Apr IBD economic optimism | Apr | 49.1 | 50.1 | 49.8 |
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 50 | |||
| 11:30AM | 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) | 70 | |||
| 4:30PM | Mar/28 API weekly crude stocks (ml) | Mar/28 | +6.037M | -4.6M | |
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