Wayne Tucker
Spectra Mortgage Corporation
P: (303) 468-1985
M: (303) 884-4446
www.spectramortgage.com
3900 S Wadsworth
Suite 415
Lakewood CO 80235
License:
NMLS #:298382, Colorado #: MLO100009851
Spectra Mortgage Corporation NMLS License: 387483
Ask Me a Question

Bonds Look Past Higher Manufacturing Prices

Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Bonds Look Past Higher Manufacturing Prices

There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher.  Today is not one of them, even though prices surged to the 2nd consecutive multi-year high. This likely would not be the case if it was the only data in play, but thankfully for bonds, the rest of the 10am data was friendly.

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Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 100.07 +0.17 10YR 4.163% -0.044% 4/1/2025 5:00PM EST
Bonds Look Past Higher Manufacturing Prices
There have certainly been days where the "prices paid" component of the ISM Manufacturing data has been responsible for sending bond yields higher.  Today is not one of them, even though prices surged to the 2nd consecutive multi-year high. This likely would not be the case if it was the only data in play, but thankfully for bonds, the rest of the 10am data was friendly. Even in the same report, the employment metric fell several points and is close to longer-t...   READ MORE
Alert:
Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely
Alert:
MBS Down an Eighth From Rate Sheet Time Frame
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.71% -0.03% 15YR Fixed 6.12% -0.01% 4/1/2025
Mortgage Rates Inch Lower, But Remain Broadly Sideways
"Sideways" has been the dominant theme for mortgage rates for well over a month now. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell below 6.82% on February 25th, and moved down to 6.70% the following week.  We haven't been outside of that range since then. Today was just another day in that regard, or perhaps even a prime example considering it was smack dab in the middle of that range.  While it's not always apparent by the time mortgage lenders set rates for the ...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Apr 01
8:55AM Mar/29 Redbook yy (%) Mar/29 4.8% 5.6%
9:45AM Mar S&P Global Manuf. PMI Mar 50.2 49.8 52.7
10:00AM Mar ISM Manufacturing New Orders Mar 45.2 48.6
10:00AM Mar ISM Mfg Prices Paid Mar 69.4 65 62.4
10:00AM Mar ISM Manufacturing Employment Mar 44.7 47.6
10:00AM Feb USA JOLTS Job Openings Feb 7.568M 7.63M 7.74M
10:00AM Feb JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Feb 3.195M 3.266M
10:00AM Mar ISM Manufacturing PMI Mar 49 49.5 50.3
10:00AM Feb Construction spending (%) Feb 0.7% 0.3% -0.2%
10:30AM Mar Dallas Fed Services Index Mar -11.3 4.6
10:30AM Mar Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index Mar 1.3 8.2
10:40AM Apr IBD economic optimism Apr 49.1 50.1 49.8
11:30AM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 50
11:30AM 52-Week Bill Auction (bl) 70
4:30PM Mar/28 API weekly crude stocks (ml) Mar/28 +6.037M -4.6M
Wednesday, Apr 02
6:00AM Mar LMI Logistics Managers Index Current Mar 57.1 62.8
7:00AM Mar/28 MBA Mortgage Applications Mar/28 -1.6% -2%
7:00AM Mar/28 MBA Refi Index Mar/28 710.4 752.4
7:00AM Mar/28 MBA Purchase Index Mar/28 158.2 155.8
7:00AM Mar/28 Mortgage Market Index Mar/28 243.6 247.5
7:00AM Mar/28 MBA 30-yr mortgage rate (%) Mar/28 6.7% 6.71%
8:15AM Mar ADP jobs (k) Mar 155K 105K 77K
9:00AM Mar Total Vehicle Sales (ml) Mar 17.77M 15.9M 16.0M
10:00AM Feb Factory ex-transp mm (% ) Feb 0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
10:00AM Feb Factory orders mm (%) Feb 0.6% 0.5% 1.7%
10:30AM Mar/28 EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change Mar/28 -0.192M 0.087M
10:30AM Mar/28 EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change Mar/28 0.164M -0.1M
10:30AM Mar/28 EIA Distillate Stocks Change Mar/28 0.264M -1.1M -0.421M
10:30AM Mar/28 EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change Mar/28 2.373M -0.755M
10:30AM Mar/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Mar/28 6.165M -2M -3.341M
10:30AM Mar/28 EIA Crude Oil Imports Change Mar/28 0.999M 0.845M
10:30AM Mar/28 EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change Mar/28 0.209M -0.035M
10:30AM Mar/28 EIA Gasoline Production Change Mar/28 0.062M -0.401M
10:30AM Mar/28 EIA Gasoline Stocks Change Mar/28 -1.551M -1.9M -1.446M
11:30AM 17-Week Bill Auction 4.200% 4.200%
4:00PM Reciprocal Tariff Plan Announcement (%)
4:30PM Fed Kugler Speech
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Inflation Told Rates to Rise. Rates Didn't Listen
3/28/2025 6:21PM
Heading into the week, market watchers knew (or thought they knew) that Friday's PCE inflation data had a chance to help or hurt interest rates more than any other economic report.  When PCE came out higher than expected on Friday morning, market watchers knew (or thought they knew) what would happen next.  But instead, the opposite happened.    Events like this se... READ MORE
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Wayne Tucker
Spectra Mortgage Corporation
P: (303) 468-1985
M: (303) 884-4446
www.spectramortgage.com
3900 S Wadsworth
Suite 415
Lakewood CO 80235
License:
NMLS #:298382, Colorado #: MLO100009851
Spectra Mortgage Corporation NMLS License: 387483
Ask Me a Question
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.