Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
The long-awaited tariff speech took markets for a ride in both directions this afternoon. After the dust settled, the net effect was "buy bonds, sell stocks." Notably, that was a sharp departure from the initial net effect during the early part of Trump's speech. The ultimately friendly result was enough to get Treasuries back into positive territory and for MBS to get sorta close. In the bigger picture, the volatility didn't really matter as both stocks and bonds remained in the same old ranges.
Late Day Volatility on Tariff Speech
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 02 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Mar/28 MBA Refi Index | Mar/28 | 710.4 | 752.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Mar/28 MBA Purchase Index | Mar/28 | 158.2 | 155.8 | |
| 8:15AM | Mar ADP jobs (k) | Mar | 155K | 105K | 77K |
| 9:00AM | Mar Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Mar | 17.77M | 15.9M | 16.0M |
| 10:00AM | Feb Factory orders mm (%) | Feb | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.7% |
| 10:30AM | Mar/28 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Mar/28 | 6.165M | -2M | -3.341M |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction | 4.200% | 4.200% | ||
| 4:00PM | Reciprocal Tariff Plan Announcement (%) | ||||
| 4:30PM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 03 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Mar Challenger layoffs (k) | Mar | 275.24K | 172.017K | |
| 8:30AM | Mar/22 Continued Claims (ml) | Mar/22 | 1903K | 1860K | 1856K |
| 8:30AM | Feb Trade Gap (bl) | Feb | $-122.7B | $-123.5B | $-131.4B |
| 8:30AM | Mar/29 Jobless Claims (k) | Mar/29 | 219K | 225K | 224K |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Composite PMI | Mar | 53.5 | 53.5 | 51.6 |
| 9:45AM | Mar S&P Global Services PMI | Mar | 54.4 | 54.3 | 51 |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Services Employment | Mar | 46.2 | 53.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Services Prices | Mar | 60.9 | 62.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM Biz Activity | Mar | 55.9 | 54.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar ISM N-Mfg PMI | Mar | 50.8 | 53 | 53.5 |
| 12:30PM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 2:30PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
