Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day

Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day

On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that's going to happen ends up happening in the morning, thus leaving the rest of the day to drift almost perfectly sideways. Thursday was one of those days. Overseas markets dogpiled on Wednesday afternoon's tariff reaction, sending stocks ripping lower and bond yields following. By the time US markets began active trading, most of the gains were in for bonds.  MBS, specifically, barely budged from 11:40am through the close.

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Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 100.32 -0.06 10YR 4.005% -0.024% 4/4/2025 5:00PM EST
Nonfarm payrolls 228k vs 135k f'cast, 117k prev last month revised down from 151k Unemployment Rate 4.2 vs 4.1 f'cast, 4.1 prev Participation Rate up 0.1% helps offset unemployment rate Simply put: this is a fairly decent jobs report considering the higher participation rate basically means unemployment was in line with forecasts.  The job count is obviously strong, but mitigated, somewhat, but the negative revision to l...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.60% -0.03% 15YR Fixed 6.02% -0.03% 4/4/2025
Yesterday afternoon's tariff announcement sent financial markets on a ride that ultimately resulted in sharply lower stock prices and moderately lower bond yields. Stocks don't always correlate with bond yields, but that has been a common pattern since late February. The correlation between bond yields and mortgage rates , on the other hand, is perpetual and nearly flawless. After all, "yield" is just another word for "rate."  Additionally, mortgage rates are based on...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 04
8:30AM Mar Participation Rate Mar 62.5% 62.4%
8:30AM Mar Average earnings mm (%) Mar 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
8:30AM Mar Non Farm Payrolls (k) Mar 228K 135K 151K
8:30AM Mar Unemployment rate mm (%) Mar 4.2% 4.1% 4.1%
11:25AM Fed Chair Powell Speech
12:00PM Fed Barr Speech
12:45PM Fed Waller Speech
Monday, Apr 07
10:30AM Fed Kugler Speech
3:00PM Feb Consumer credit (bl) Feb $-0.81B $15.2B $18.08B
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Heading into the week, market watchers knew (or thought they knew) that Friday's PCE inflation data had a chance to help or hurt interest rates more than any other economic report.  When PCE came out higher than expected on Friday morning, market watchers knew (or thought they knew) what would happen next.  But instead, the opposite happened.    Events like this se... READ MORE