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Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
MBS ended Friday right about where they ended Thursday, and if that's all you got to know about the future on Thursday afternoon, it would have been good news. But as it stands, it could be a bit frustrating considering it means about 3/8ths of a point of weakness from AM levels. Moreover, there was no glaringly obvious motivation for the reversal, nor was there a similar reversal in equities. That leaves us to consider factors like traders moving to sidelines heading into the weekend and mid day headlines regarding Vietnam lowering tariffs on the U.S. (a proof of concept for de-escalation of trade war themes). MBS underperformance can be seen as a combination of Treasuries being the preferred safe haven for flights to safety, and also the only beneficiary of the Fed's QT tapering plans. Today's video dives deeper into these considerations, but the takeaway is that the week was a win overall, and that anything can change quickly when the market is taking cues from tariff-driven economic speculation.
Wild Round Trip Leaves MBS Weaker Despite Huge Initial Rally
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Apr 04 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar Average earnings mm (%) | Mar | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Mar | 228K | 135K | 151K |
| 8:30AM | Mar Participation Rate | Mar | 62.5% | 62.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Unemployment rate mm (%) | Mar | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| 11:25AM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 12:00PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 12:45PM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| Monday, Apr 07 | |||||
| 10:30AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Feb Consumer credit (bl) | Feb | $15.2B | $18.08B | |
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