Big (Bad) Things Are Happening in Bonds

Big (Bad) Things Are Happening in Bonds

There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began before 1981 (and unless something changes drastically in the next 3 hours), you just lived through the worst week you've ever seen in terms of the jump in 10yr yields. Such things don't happen without reasons.  Econ data is obviously out the window as this morning's sharply lower producer inflation did nothing to help.  The laundry list of other reasons is largely unchanged as this move is a glacial sort of thing that is simply in motion until and unless something stops it.  Laundry lists have been discussed in the past 2 MBS Live Recaps/Videos, and no doubt will be today as well. 

Latest Video Analysis

The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.22 -0.14 10YR 4.494% +0.061% 4/11/2025 5:00PM EST
There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began before 1981 (and unless something changes drastically in the next 3 hours), you just lived through the worst week you've ever seen in terms of the jump in 10yr yields. Such things don't happen without reasons.  Econ data is obviously out the window as this morning's sharply lower producer inflation did nothing to help. ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.07% +0.10% 15YR Fixed 6.48% +0.08% 4/11/2025
This article is not intended to report on the weekly Freddie Mac rate survey, but we'll have to reference it in order to participate in reality. To be fair, Freddie's survey is perfectly real, but it's unfortunately quite stale. That isn't always a problem, but it is today. Freddie reports that this week's mortgage rates fell to 6.62 from 6.64. Per survey methodology, that's the average rate between last Thursday and yesterday. The issue is that there's been a lot of up...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 11
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
8:00AM Fed Kashkari Speech
8:30AM Mar Producer Prices (%) Mar -0.4% 0.2% 0%
8:30AM Mar Core Producer Prices YY (%) Mar 3.3% 3.6% 3.4%
8:30AM Mar Core Producer Prices MM (%) Mar -0.1% 0.3% -0.1%
9:00AM Fed Collins Speech
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Apr 6.7% 5%
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Apr 4.4% 4.1%
10:00AM Apr U Mich conditions Apr 56.5 61.5 63.8
10:00AM Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) Apr 50.8 54.5 57.0
10:00AM Fed Musalem Speech
11:00AM Fed Williams Speech
Monday, Apr 14
11:00AM Mar Consumer Inflation Expectations Mar 3.6% 3.1%
12:00PM Fed Barkin Speech
1:00PM Fed Waller Speech
6:00PM Fed Harker Speech
7:40PM Fed Bostic Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
It was a great week for fans of chaos, volatility, and low interest rates as all 3 were delivered in spades. Despite the presence of several big ticket economic reports, the catalyst was Wednesday afternoon's tariff announcement followed by the international response on Thursday night. For the most part, the market has been responding to tariff news by selling stocks and buying bonds. Because m... READ MORE