Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data

Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data

Bonds managed to recover modestly after the initial yield spike in the morning hours, but nonetheless earned the honor of seeing the biggest week over week jump in 10yr yields since 1981 (note: some outlets are saying 2001 or 1987, but we're not seeing that, and it doesn't really matter.  It was a rough week, is the point). Looked at as a 2 week time frame, and it was on par with many other recent examples of moderately brisk selling.  That leaves the upcoming week and a half in a great position to let us know how freaked out we should be. 

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Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.22 -0.14 10YR 4.494% +0.061% 4/11/2025 5:00PM EST
There have been some bad weeks for bonds here and there over the careers of most anyone who's alive to read these words, but unless your career began before 1981 (and unless something changes drastically in the next 3 hours), you just lived through the worst week you've ever seen in terms of the jump in 10yr yields. Such things don't happen without reasons.  Econ data is obviously out the window as this morning's sharply lower producer inflation did nothing to help. ...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.07% +0.10% 15YR Fixed 6.48% +0.08% 4/11/2025
It has undoubtedly been an extremely volatile week for financial markets and that includes the U.S. bond market to be sure.  As an example, the poster child for the U.S. bond market, the 10yr Treasury, saw its biggest week-over-week increase since 1981.  As we often discuss, mortgage rates are based on bonds that share many similarities with U.S. Treasuries, so it's no surprise to see chaos in that market and a concomitant jump in mortgage rates.  In genera...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 11
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 30YR
8:00AM Fed Kashkari Speech
8:30AM Mar Producer Prices (%) Mar -0.4% 0.2% 0%
8:30AM Mar Core Producer Prices YY (%) Mar 3.3% 3.6% 3.4%
8:30AM Mar Core Producer Prices MM (%) Mar -0.1% 0.3% -0.1%
9:00AM Fed Collins Speech
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Apr 6.7% 5%
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Apr 4.4% 4.1%
10:00AM Apr U Mich conditions Apr 56.5 61.5 63.8
10:00AM Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) Apr 50.8 54.5 57.0
10:00AM Fed Musalem Speech
11:00AM Fed Williams Speech
Monday, Apr 14
11:00AM Mar Consumer Inflation Expectations Mar 3.1%
12:00PM Fed Barkin Speech
1:00PM Fed Waller Speech
6:00PM Fed Harker Speech
7:40PM Fed Bostic Speech
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Whether we're talking about mortgage rates or a quintessential yard stick of the rate world like the 10yr Treasury yield, it was the roughest week in quite a while.  Nearly every corner of the market continues reacting in volatile fashion to last week's tariff announcement and the subsequent updates. Momentum toward higher rates took on a life of its own this week for laundry list of mostl... READ MORE