Owner
Main Street Mortgage Company
License:
MSMC NMLS 296814
Paul E Smith NMLS 193580

Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change

Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Another Tariff Change

It was a low drama session for bonds with overnight gains managing to remain intact during the AM hours and additional improvement in the PM hours. There wasn't any glaringly obvious individual market mover during domestic hours, although some would say comments from Fed's Waller certainly didn't hurt. Rather, we saw consistent, moderate, generalized buying demand as traders need not price in as much panic as last week if the tariff outlook is becoming progressively less onerous. Whether this is a brief reprieve remains to be seen.  And we may have to wait a bit longer to sort that out considering there are only 2.5 more days left to trade this week due to the holiday calendar. 

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Bonds Build on Overnight Gains After Tariff Exclusions

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.88 +0.61 10YR 4.374% -0.116% 4/14/2025 5:00PM EST
Friday afternoon's memorandum on tariff exclusions set the stage for stronger trading in stocks and bonds in the overnight session. Bonds rallied steadily in Asia/Europe and have continued to improve in early domestic trading. Data is nearly non-existent today, with only the relatively obscure NY Fed Consumer Survey on tap at 11am ET. Several Fed speakers will be making the rounds shortly thereafter, but two of the four speeches occur after market hours. Moreover, most Fed sp...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.98% -0.09% 15YR Fixed 6.45% -0.03% 4/14/2025
Last Friday was notable in that it was the first day since February 19th where the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate ended the day over 7%. Last week was also notable for ranking among the more abrupt weeks for rising rates over the past few years. Things are getting off to a friendlier start in the present week with the 30yr fixed rate index edging back below 7%--roughly in line with levels seen last Wed/Thu.   As is true for most markets at the moment,...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Apr 14
11:00AM Mar Consumer Inflation Expectations Mar 3.6% 3.1%
12:00PM Fed Barkin Speech
1:00PM Fed Waller Speech
6:00PM Fed Harker Speech
7:40PM Fed Bostic Speech
Tuesday, Apr 15
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM Mar Import prices mm (%) Mar -0.1% 0% 0.4%
8:30AM Mar Export prices mm (%) Mar 0% 0% 0.1%
8:30AM Apr NY Fed Manufacturing Apr -8.10 -14.5 -20.00
11:35AM Fed Barkin Speech
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
7:10PM Fed Cook Speech
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Whether we're talking about mortgage rates or a quintessential yard stick of the rate world like the 10yr Treasury yield, it was the roughest week in quite a while.  Nearly every corner of the market continues reacting in volatile fashion to last week's tariff announcement and the subsequent updates. Momentum toward higher rates took on a life of its own this week for laundry list of mostl... READ MORE
Owner
Main Street Mortgage Company
License:
MSMC NMLS 296814
Paul E Smith NMLS 193580