Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks
Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks
You've seen it plenty of times so far in 2025. You've wondered what the heck happened to it during last week's volatile tariff announcement aftermath. Now today, more than any other day this week, a good, old-fashioned flight to safety helped the bond market realize some decent gains. Powell's speech at 1:30pm ET was the clear catalyst, with warnings for the economy and reassurances for the bond market's smooth functioning. At this point, bonds are right back in line with the flat, narrow range seen between late February and late March.
Bonds Are Back as a Safe Haven--At Least For Now
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 16 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/11 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/11 | 164.2 | 172.7 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/11 MBA Refi Index | Apr/11 | 841.9 | 961.4 | |
| 8:30AM | Mar Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Mar | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Retail Sales (%) | Mar | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Mar | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1% |
| 9:15AM | Mar Industrial Production (%) | Mar | -0.3% | -0.2% | 0.7% |
| 10:00AM | Feb Business Inventories (% ) | Feb | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Apr NAHB housing market indx | Apr | 40 | 37 | 39 |
| 10:30AM | Apr/11 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/11 | 0.515M | 0.4M | 2.553M |
| 11:30AM | 17-Week Bill Auction | 4.225% | 4.250% | ||
| 12:00PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
| 1:30PM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 1:38PM | Powell Speech at Economic Club of Chicago | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Schmid Speech | ||||
| Thursday, Apr 17 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Mar Housing starts number mm (ml) | Mar | 1.324M | 1.42M | 1.501M |
| 8:30AM | Apr/05 Continued Claims (ml) | Apr/05 | 1885K | 1870K | 1850K |
| 8:30AM | Mar Building Permits (ml) | Mar | 1.482M | 1.45M | 1.459M |
| 8:30AM | Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid | Apr | 51.00 | 48.30 | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Philly Fed Business Index | Apr | -26.4 | 2 | 12.5 |
| 8:30AM | Apr/12 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/12 | 215K | 225K | 223K |
| 11:30AM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 25 | |||
| 11:45AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 2:00PM | Good Friday Eve | ||||
