Luxury Real Estate Professional
Gina Mancuso Luxury Real Estate
License:
02146794

Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness

Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness

Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and very flat for most of the morning. MBS began falling as we moved into the PM hours, ultimately resulting in a handful of negative reprices, about a quarter point of weakness, and a 4+bp jump in Treasury yields. If the frame of reference is limited to the domestic session, this is a moderate sell-off at best, but in the bigger picture, it was not even worth mentioning, let alone considering as a cause of concern. Bonds are heading into the 3 day weekend at much less alarming levels than last week, and with the the same requirement to wait for clarity on fiscal policies before the next major movement is revealed.

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Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.02 -0.21 10YR 4.326% +0.048% 4/17/2025 2:00PM EST
This is more of a heads-up than an actual alert.   MBS are now down to the weakest levels of the day with 5.5 coupons down exactly an eighth of a point (both on the day and versus many lenders' rate sheet print times). Most lenders don't reprice for this much weakness.  Some do.  The best way to use this alert is as a cue to lock if you were already planning on locking today.  In other words, positive reprices can be ruled out given there's only 90...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.87% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.28% +0.01% 4/17/2025
Mortgage rates managed to make a nice amount of progress this week after hitting the highest levels in roughly 2 months last Friday. The first 2 days of the week brought the most meaningful improvement and it's been slow going since then. In fact, today ended up going slowly in the other direction with the average lender moving slightly higher in rate compared to yesterday. The pace of movement is nothing like we saw last week, thankfully. The financial markets that unde...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, Apr 17
12:00AM Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR
8:30AM Mar Housing starts number mm (ml) Mar 1.324M 1.42M 1.501M
8:30AM Apr/05 Continued Claims (ml) Apr/05 1885K 1870K 1850K
8:30AM Mar Building Permits (ml) Mar 1.482M 1.45M 1.459M
8:30AM Apr Philly Fed Prices Paid Apr 51.00 48.30
8:30AM Apr Philly Fed Business Index Apr -26.4 2 12.5
8:30AM Apr/12 Jobless Claims (k) Apr/12 215K 225K 223K
11:30AM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 25
11:45AM Fed Barr Speech
2:00PM Good Friday Eve
Friday, Apr 18
12:00AM Good Friday
11:00AM Fed Daly Speech
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Last week, there was a curious, but not uncommon juxtaposition of widespread headlines claiming "lower mortgage rates" and our own headlines suggesting one of the biggest weekly jumps in years.  Neither were incorrect, but only one was timely. Survey-based, weekly data served as fuel for the "lower rate" headlines because it failed to capture most of the rate spike. The methodology, which ... READ MORE
Luxury Real Estate Professional
Gina Mancuso Luxury Real Estate
License:
02146794