Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons

Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons

Global financial markets partook in a slow motion train wreck on Monday as investors shunned USD-denominated assets and the dollar itself in response to Trump's vocal criticism of Fed Chair Powell.  The criticism itself wouldn't be too tough to deal with, but the prospect of "firing" the Fed Chair seems to figure much more prominently into this edition of Trump vs Powell than it did during Trump's previous term.  In not so many words, this would be "bad" for both stocks and bonds.  Today wasn't catastrophic by any means, but the correlated weakness between stocks, bonds and the USD is an important proof of concept. 

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Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.40 -0.15 10YR 4.431% +0.021% 4/22/2025 6:43AM EST
Bonds continue selling steadily and gradually with no major spikes or reactions to headlines/data.  10yr yields are up 7.7bps at 4.403, right in line with the highs of the day. MBS are down just over 3/8ths on the day and nearly as much from the AM highs. Even in cases where lenders priced during the lowest levels of the morning, there's still a gap of 5 ticks (.16). As such, any lender could justify a negative reprice at the moment.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.98% +0.11% 15YR Fixed 6.33% +0.05% 4/21/2025
Last week was a hopeful one for interest rates .  The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell more than 0.20% from the previous week's highs as underlying markets took some solace in the absence of major trade war escalations. Despite the solid improvement, the outright level of rates remained elevated compared to most of the past 2 months. In addition, the risk of volatility could not (and cannot) be ruled out when the market is more willing to react to fiscal...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Apr 22
9:00AM Fed Jefferson Speech
9:30AM Fed Harker Speech
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
2:00PM Fed Kashkari Speech
6:00PM Fed Kugler Speech
Wednesday, Apr 23
7:00AM Apr/18 MBA Purchase Index Apr/18 164.2
7:00AM Apr/18 MBA Refi Index Apr/18 841.9
8:00AM Mar Building Permits (ml) Mar 1.482M 1.459M
9:00AM Fed Goolsbee Speech
9:00AM Fed Beth Speech
9:35AM Fed Waller Speech
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Services PMI Apr 52.8 54.4
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI Apr 49.4 50.2
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Composite PMI Apr 53.5
10:00AM Mar New Home Sales (%) (%) Mar 1.8%
10:00AM Mar New Home Sales (ml) Mar 0.680M 0.676M
10:30AM Apr/18 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Apr/18 0.515M
11:30AM 17-Week Bill Auction 4.225%
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.105%
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 30
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
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Last week, there was a curious, but not uncommon juxtaposition of widespread headlines claiming "lower mortgage rates" and our own headlines suggesting one of the biggest weekly jumps in years.  Neither were incorrect, but only one was timely. Survey-based, weekly data served as fuel for the "lower rate" headlines because it failed to capture most of the rate spike. The methodology, which ... READ MORE