Ethan Brooks
Mortgage Advisor / Branch Manager
Fairway Mortgage
M: (414) 488-0438
ethanbrooks.mortgage
11220 W Burleigh St
Suite 100
Wauwatosa WI 53222
License:
1639987

Here We Are Again: No News is Good News

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Here We Are Again: No News is Good News

If there was an overriding theme last week, it was that the absence of new tariff drama helped the bond market recover some of the previous week's weakness. While it wasn't exactly tariff drama, yesterday's "Trump vs Powell" headlines served a similar purpose in that they spooked markets and caused selling across the board. No today, traders are buying the dip in bond prices (cautiously) amid an absence of additional escalation in yesterday's drama. Could escalation reemerge? Certainly. And if it does, markets will react.  Until then, no news is good news, but not good enough to undo more than fraction of the previous day's damage. Indeed, this will be an ongoing theme (i.e. a certain--sometimes large--portion of the damage associated with such events will NOT easily be erased, even if the risk is seemingly defused).

Market Movement Recap
09:50 AM

Moderately stronger overnight after initial weakness. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.378.

Latest Video Analysis

Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.66 +0.11 10YR 4.392% -0.019% 4/22/2025 2:35PM EST
Negative Reprices Becoming More Likely
Bonds continue selling steadily and gradually with no major spikes or reactions to headlines/data.  10yr yields are up 7.7bps at 4.403, right in line with the highs of the day. MBS are down just over 3/8ths on the day and nearly as much from the AM highs. Even in cases where lenders priced during the lowest levels of the morning, there's still a gap of 5 ticks (.16). As such, any lender could justify a negative reprice at the moment.   READ MORE
Alert:
Down More Than an Eighth From Highs
MBS Morning:
Drama Returns, But With Mixed Results For Bonds
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.98% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.35% +0.02% 4/22/2025
Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7%
Last week was a hopeful one for interest rates .  The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell more than 0.20% from the previous week's highs as underlying markets took some solace in the absence of major trade war escalations. Despite the solid improvement, the outright level of rates remained elevated compared to most of the past 2 months. In addition, the risk of volatility could not (and cannot) be ruled out when the market is more willing to react to fiscal...   READ MORE
Last Week This Week Next Week
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, Apr 22
9:00AM Fed Jefferson Speech
9:30AM Fed Harker Speech
1:00PM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 69
2:00PM Fed Kashkari Speech
6:00PM Fed Kugler Speech
Wednesday, Apr 23
7:00AM Apr/18 MBA Purchase Index Apr/18 164.2
7:00AM Apr/18 MBA Refi Index Apr/18 841.9
8:00AM Mar Building Permits (ml) Mar 1.482M 1.459M
9:00AM Fed Goolsbee Speech
9:00AM Fed Beth Speech
9:35AM Fed Waller Speech
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Services PMI Apr 52.8 54.4
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI Apr 49.4 50.2
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Composite PMI Apr 53.5
10:00AM Mar New Home Sales (%) (%) Mar 1.8%
10:00AM Mar New Home Sales (ml) Mar 0.680M 0.676M
10:30AM Apr/18 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Apr/18 0.515M
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.105%
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 30
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
Recent Housing News
Read My Latest Newsletter
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Much Lower This Week
4/17/2025 4:30PM
Last week, there was a curious, but not uncommon juxtaposition of widespread headlines claiming "lower mortgage rates" and our own headlines suggesting one of the biggest weekly jumps in years.  Neither were incorrect, but only one was timely. Survey-based, weekly data served as fuel for the "lower rate" headlines because it failed to capture most of the rate spike. The methodology, which ... READ MORE
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Ethan Brooks
Mortgage Advisor / Branch Manager
Fairway Mortgage
M: (414) 488-0438
ethanbrooks.mortgage
11220 W Burleigh St
Suite 100
Wauwatosa WI 53222
License:
1639987
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Reproduction or redistribution this newsletter, outside of the distribution services provided, is prohibited. Interest rate data provided in this newsletter are national averages. Rate/APR terms may differ. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only.