Owner
Main Street Mortgage Company
License:
MSMC NMLS 296814
Paul E Smith NMLS 193580

Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility

Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility

Shorter term bonds lost ground today while longer term bonds and MBS managed a modest victory. While this isn't really a victory considering the mixed performance, it was better than a sharp stick in the eye.  Moreover, MBS were able to outperform--something that is not at all uncommon on the first few days of a Treasury auction week.  In the bigger picture, yields are hugging the upper boundary of a trend that would seem fairly boring and only slightly weaker over the past few months after breaking sharply below and above that trend after the tariff announcement drama. 

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Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.82 +0.20 10YR 4.368% -0.029% 4/23/2025 12:42PM EST
If there was an overriding theme last week, it was that the absence of new tariff drama helped the bond market recover some of the previous week's weakness. While it wasn't exactly tariff drama, yesterday's "Trump vs Powell" headlines served a similar purpose in that they spooked markets and caused selling across the board. No today, traders are buying the dip in bond prices (cautiously) amid an absence of additional escalation in yesterday's drama. Could escalation reemerge?...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.94% -0.04% 15YR Fixed 6.29% -0.06% 4/23/2025
In not so many words, last week's thesis was that "no news was good news" for mortgage rates .  Specifically, an absence of major, unexpected developments on the topic of tariffs and trade helped the underlying bond market retrace some of the recent steps. Those steps resulted in the highest rates in several months and one of the biggest weekly rate spikes in years. The present week began with echoes of that unpleasantness. Headlines regarding Trump's comments about F...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Apr 23
7:00AM Apr/18 MBA Purchase Index Apr/18 153.4 164.2
7:00AM Apr/18 MBA Refi Index Apr/18 673.6 841.9
7:30AM Mar Building Permits (ml) Mar 1.467M 1.482M 1.459M
9:00AM Fed Goolsbee Speech
9:00AM Fed Beth Speech
9:35AM Fed Waller Speech
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Services PMI Apr 51.4 52.5 54.4
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI Apr 50.7 49.1 50.2
9:45AM Apr S&P Global Composite PMI Apr 51.2 53.5
10:00AM Mar New Home Sales (%) (%) Mar 7.4% 1.8%
10:00AM Mar New Home Sales (ml) Mar 0.724M 0.68M 0.676M
10:30AM Apr/18 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) Apr/18 0.244M -0.7M 0.515M
11:30AM 2-Year FRN Auction (%) 0.160% 0.105%
11:30AM 2-Yr Note Auction (bl) 30
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 70
2:00PM Fed Beige Book
Thursday, Apr 24
8:30AM Apr/19 Jobless Claims (k) Apr/19 221K 215K
8:30AM Mar Core CapEx (%) Mar 0.2% -0.3%
8:30AM Mar Durable goods (%) Mar 2% 0.9%
8:30AM Apr/12 Continued Claims (ml) Apr/12 1880K 1885K
10:00AM Mar Existing home sales (ml) Mar 4.13M 4.26M
10:00AM Mar Exist. home sales % chg (%) Mar -3% 4.2%
1:00PM 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) 44
5:00PM Fed Kashkari Speech
Read My Latest Newsletter
Last week, there was a curious, but not uncommon juxtaposition of widespread headlines claiming "lower mortgage rates" and our own headlines suggesting one of the biggest weekly jumps in years.  Neither were incorrect, but only one was timely. Survey-based, weekly data served as fuel for the "lower rate" headlines because it failed to capture most of the rate spike. The methodology, which ... READ MORE
Owner
Main Street Mortgage Company
License:
MSMC NMLS 296814
Paul E Smith NMLS 193580