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Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data
Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data
Bonds started out sharply stronger today after Trump walked back previous comments on Fed Chair Powell. Headlines regarding lower tariffs for China also helped, but they helped stocks more. The good times began unravelling with the 9:45am S&P PMI data. Both manufacturing and services PMIs showed sharp increases in prices. This is one of the first clear examples of tariffs impacting inflation data. Markets were quite willing to trade the data this time (unlike with the recent CPI/PPI releases--probably because those showed lower inflation in a world that feared higher inflation) with bonds ultimately almost fully erasing the AM gains.
Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Apr 24 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/19 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/19 | 222K | 222K | 215K |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core CapEx (%) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Durable goods (%) | Mar | 9.2% | 2% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Apr/12 Continued Claims (ml) | Apr/12 | 1841K | 1880K | 1885K |
| 10:00AM | Mar Existing home sales (ml) | Mar | 4.02M | 4.13M | 4.26M |
| 10:00AM | Mar Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Mar | -5.9% | -3% | 4.2% |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 5:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| Friday, Apr 25 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Apr U Mich conditions | Apr | 56.5 | 63.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Apr | 50.8 | 57.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Apr | 4.4% | 4.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Apr | 6.7% | 5% | |
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