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Bigger Picture Starting to Look More Normal
Bigger Picture Starting to Look More Normal
What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look. Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways movement in a relatively narrow range as we waited for clarity on new fiscal policies and economic data. The tariff roll-out shook things up, to be sure, but for more than a week now, yields have been back in the same old "normal" pattern. So what's next? That's a good question. It could be a big policy shift, or economic data, or a global market event. No one knows, but we'll know it when we see it.
Stronger overnight with additional gains after uneventful data. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 6+bps at 4.32
No major reaction to ho-hum 7yr auction. 10yr yields down 7.7bps at 4.312 and MBS up 3/8ths of a point.
Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Apr 24 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr/19 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/19 | 222K | 222K | 215K |
| 8:30AM | Mar Core CapEx (%) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Mar Durable goods (%) | Mar | 9.2% | 2% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Apr/12 Continued Claims (ml) | Apr/12 | 1841K | 1880K | 1885K |
| 10:00AM | Mar Existing home sales (ml) | Mar | 4.02M | 4.13M | 4.26M |
| 10:00AM | Mar Exist. home sales % chg (%) | Mar | -5.9% | -3% | 4.2% |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 5:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| Friday, Apr 25 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Apr U Mich conditions | Apr | 56.5 | 63.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Apr | 50.8 | 57.0 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Apr | 4.4% | 4.1% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Apr | 6.7% | 5% | |
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