President, Owner
River City Mortgage, LLC

Data Free Friday. Heavy Data Next Week

Data Free Friday. Heavy Data Next Week

Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the final reading of the preliminary release 2 weeks ago.  It's the preliminary release that tends to move markets. Case in point, there was no reaction to this morning's installment, nor would we have expected there to be. Next week is a different story. Multiple calendar events are capable of having an impact. Most strikingly, at least one of these events is tap on every single day (usually there's at least one day that offers a break in the storm). All of the above makes today somewhat superfluous and inconsequential in the bigger picture.  Sure, there could be some major, unexpected fiscal development, but it seems financial markets are increasingly comfortable in their assumption that the Trump administration received the message about a more measured approach on tariffs.  That comfort is reflected in bonds' return to the pre-tariff range.

Market Movement Recap
09:58 AM

Modestly stronger overnight and mostly holding gains so far.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.8bps at 4.284

Latest Video Analysis

Solid Bonds Rally For Debatable Reasons

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.56 +0.38 10YR 4.237% -0.084% 4/25/2025 5:00PM EST
Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the final reading of the preliminary release 2 weeks ago.  It's the preliminary release that tends to move markets. Case in point, there was no reaction to this morning's installment, nor would we have expected there to be. Next week is a different story. Multiple calendar events are capable of having an impact. Most strikingly...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.84% -0.08% 15YR Fixed 6.25% -0.05% 4/25/2025
Mortgage rates continue the slow, bumpy process of healing from the rapid rise seen 2 weeks ago. Last week was a solid victory in that sense with rates moving steadily and meaningfully lower without any major rebounds. The present week started out on shakier footing as rates lurched higher on Monday. Fortunately, the sailing has been smoother since then. Today was actually the best day of the week so far for the underlying bond market. Most of the improvement happened in o...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Apr 25
10:00AM Apr U Mich conditions Apr 59.8 56.5 63.8
10:00AM Apr Consumer Sentiment (ip) Apr 52.2 50.8 57.0
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Apr 4.4% 4.4% 4.1%
10:00AM Apr Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Apr 6.5% 6.7% 5%
Monday, Apr 28
3:00PM Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (%)
3:00PM 10-Year Note Auction
3:00PM Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (%)
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Last week, there was a curious, but not uncommon juxtaposition of widespread headlines claiming "lower mortgage rates" and our own headlines suggesting one of the biggest weekly jumps in years.  Neither were incorrect, but only one was timely. Survey-based, weekly data served as fuel for the "lower rate" headlines because it failed to capture most of the rate spike. The methodology, which ... READ MORE
President, Owner
River City Mortgage, LLC