Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760

Bonds Starting New Week Right in Line With Friday

Bonds Starting New Week Right in Line With Friday

When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on Monday. When that logic is applied today, we find yields precisely in line with Friday's 3pm levels and MBS doing just a bit better. This is the only day of the week without any major data or calendar event in the morning hours. Broader market focus remains on equities and earnings season, but Treasuries get quarterly refunding estimates at 3pm--something that can occasionally have a very noticeable impact.

Market Movement Recap
10:21 AM

Moderately weaker overnight, but pushing back since 9am ET.  10yr up 1.3bps at 4.25 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).

Latest Video Analysis

Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.64 +0.07 10YR 4.210% -0.027% 4/28/2025 3:39PM EST
Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the final reading of the preliminary release 2 weeks ago.  It's the preliminary release that tends to move markets. Case in point, there was no reaction to this morning's installment, nor would we have expected there to be. Next week is a different story. Multiple calendar events are capable of having an impact. Most strikingly...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.82% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 6.23% -0.02% 4/28/2025
The news on mortgage rates has been frustratingly mixed recently, depending on the source. This is a factor of the various time frames and methodologies employed by different purveyors of rate data. If you're reading this, however, none of that matters because the following is as timely as it gets: the average mortgage lender is now at the lowest level since April 7th. Improvements versus yesterday vary depending on the lender.  Some of them made friendly adjustments...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Apr 28
3:00PM Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (%)
3:00PM 10-Year Note Auction
3:00PM Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates (%)
Tuesday, Apr 29
8:30AM Mar Wholesale inventories mm (%) Mar 0.7% 0.3%
9:00AM Feb FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) Feb 0.3% 0.2%
9:00AM Feb FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) Feb 4.8%
9:00AM Feb CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) Feb 0.1%
9:00AM Feb Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) Feb 4.8% 4.7%
10:00AM Apr CB Consumer Confidence (%) Apr 87 92.9
10:00AM Mar JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Mar 3.195M
10:00AM Mar USA JOLTS Job Openings Mar 7.5M 7.568M
Read My Latest Newsletter
Please note that this newsletter is fiercely apolitical. There is no judgment on whether any given political development is good or bad. We are only interested in how financial and housing markets are reacting.  Significant market volatility has been all over the news since the April 2nd tariff announcement, but this week went a long way toward restoring a sense of calm. In addition to tar... READ MORE
Broker/Owner
Collaborative Capital
License:
NMLS# 278724
NMLS# 2385760