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No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight but quickly moved into stronger territory as volume and liquidity ramped up for the new week. Gains were modest and linear--largely extending the friendly trends seen last Thu/Fri. The only key calendar event was the Treasury refunding estimates this afternoon. While there are some potentially alarming ways to read the newswires (i.e. "June borrowing estimates up to $514b vs $123b previously"), the large apparent change is due to accounting and not reflective of a $391 bln increase in spending or decrease in revenue. In other words, there were no whammies for the bond market. If anything, it was treated as good news based on yield movement at 3pm ET.
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Mar | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 9:00AM | Feb FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Feb | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 9:00AM | Feb FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Feb | 3.9% | 4.8% | |
| 9:00AM | Feb CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Feb | 0.7% | 0.1% | |
| 9:00AM | Feb Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Feb | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| 10:00AM | Apr CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Apr | 86.0 | 87.5 | 92.9 |
| 10:00AM | Mar JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Mar | 3.332M | 3.195M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar USA JOLTS Job Openings | Mar | 7.192M | 7.48M | 7.568M |
| Wednesday, Apr 30 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/25 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/25 | 153.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/25 MBA Refi Index | Apr/25 | 673.6 | ||
| 8:15AM | Apr ADP jobs (k) | Apr | 108K | 155K | |
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 8:30AM | Q1 Employment costs (%) | Q1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q1 | 2.6% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 0.4% | 2.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP deflator (%) | Q1 | 3.1% | 2.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 3.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | 10-Year Note Auction | ||||
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 9:45AM | Apr Chicago PMI | Apr | 45.5 | 47.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Mar | 2.6% | 2.8% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Mar | 0.6% | 0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Pending Home Sales (%) | Mar | -0.3% | 2% | |
| 10:30AM | Apr/25 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/25 | 0.244M | ||
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