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Bonds Erase Overnight Weakness With Help From Tariff Talk and Data
Bonds Erase Overnight Weakness With Help From Tariff Talk and Data
Once again, bonds were modestly weaker overnight and once again, that weakness is being reversed in early trading. Whereas scapegoats were nowhere to be found yesterday morning, Tuesday has a few. The first move followed a comment from the White House regarding reports that Amazon was considering listing tariff impacts on prices. While this has since been clarified, it caused initial selling in stocks and buying for bonds. The 9:30am NYSE open saw both stocks and bonds improve. Lastly, the 10am econ data (mainly, the weaker job openings number) added modestly to the gains.
Modestly weaker overnight and little-changed so far this morning. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.229
Additional gains. 10yr down 1bp at 4.198 and MBS unchanged.
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, Apr 29 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Mar | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| 9:00AM | Feb FHFA Home Price Index m/m (%) | Feb | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 9:00AM | Feb FHFA Home Prices y/y (%) | Feb | 3.9% | 4.8% | |
| 9:00AM | Feb CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (%) | Feb | 0.7% | 0.1% | |
| 9:00AM | Feb Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (% ) | Feb | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% |
| 10:00AM | Apr CB Consumer Confidence (%) | Apr | 86.0 | 87.5 | 92.9 |
| 10:00AM | Mar JOLTs Job Quits (ml) | Mar | 3.332M | 3.195M | |
| 10:00AM | Mar USA JOLTS Job Openings | Mar | 7.192M | 7.48M | 7.568M |
| Wednesday, Apr 30 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/25 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/25 | 153.4 | ||
| 7:00AM | Apr/25 MBA Refi Index | Apr/25 | 673.6 | ||
| 8:15AM | Apr ADP jobs (k) | Apr | 108K | 155K | |
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 8:30AM | Q1 Employment costs (%) | Q1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q1 | 2.6% | ||
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | 0.4% | 2.4% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP deflator (%) | Q1 | 3.1% | 2.3% | |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | 3.3% | ||
| 8:30AM | 10-Year Note Auction | ||||
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 9:45AM | Apr Chicago PMI | Apr | 45.5 | 47.6 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Mar | 2.6% | 2.8% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Mar | 0.6% | 0.4% | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Pending Home Sales (%) | Mar | -0.3% | 2% | |
| 10:30AM | Apr/25 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/25 | 0.244M | ||
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