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Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck
Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck
Today's trading was almost a carbon copy of yesterday's with overnight losses, an AM reversal, and gradual improvement that leveled off in the PM hours. With those gains, 10yr yields made a full round trip back to the lower boundary of the pre-tariff trading range of 4.19-4.34. That doesn't mean anything about the future, but it's an interesting reflection on the recent past. White House comments on Amazon hit stocks early, but everything bounced back even before Amazon clarified its position. Econ data helped bonds hold or add to gains (Confidence and Job Openings). Data gets incrementally more important over the next 3 days, and volatility gets incrementally more likely to pick back up.
Trading Range Fully Restored
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Apr 30 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Apr/25 MBA Purchase Index | Apr/25 | 146.6 | 153.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Apr/25 MBA Refi Index | Apr/25 | 649.0 | 673.6 | |
| 8:15AM | Apr ADP jobs (k) | Apr | 62K | 115K | 155K |
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 8:30AM | Q1 Employment costs (%) | Q1 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q1 | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | -0.3% | 0.3% | 2.4% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP deflator (%) | Q1 | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | -2.5% | 3.3% | |
| 8:30AM | 10-Year Note Auction | ||||
| 8:30AM | Treasury Refunding Announcement (%) | ||||
| 9:45AM | Apr Chicago PMI | Apr | 44.6 | 45.5 | 47.6 |
| 10:00AM | Mar Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | Mar | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Core PCE (m/m) (%) | Mar | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | Mar | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Pending Home Sales (%) | Mar | 6.1% | 1% | 2% |
| 10:30AM | Apr/25 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Apr/25 | -2.696M | 0.39M | 0.244M |
| Thursday, May 01 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Apr Challenger layoffs (k) | Apr | 275.24K | ||
| 8:30AM | Apr/19 Continued Claims (ml) | Apr/19 | 1860K | 1841K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr/26 Jobless Claims (k) | Apr/26 | 224K | 222K | |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Manuf. PMI | Apr | 50.7 | 50.2 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Manufacturing Employment | Apr | 44.7 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Mfg Prices Paid | Apr | 70.3 | 69.4 | |
| 10:00AM | Mar Construction spending (%) | Mar | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Manufacturing PMI | Apr | 48 | 49 | |
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