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Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with economic data in wake of the tariff announcement in early April, which was logical given the headline-drive volatility and uncertainty. 2 weeks ago, the connection looked to be returning. Now over the past 2 days, it's back with a vengeance. It's not that any of the data has been stunningly strong, but it's been much better than what some market participants were prepared to see. Friday's jobs report is the 2nd time in 2 days where traders have been able (or forced?) to reconcile their more dire fears with a less dire reality. Translation: higher stocks, higher yields. More big ticket data on the way on Monday...
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, May 02 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Average earnings mm (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Non Farm Payrolls (k) | Apr | 177K | 130K | 228K |
| 8:30AM | Apr Participation Rate | Apr | 62.6% | 62.5% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Unemployment rate mm (%) | Apr | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 9:30AM | Apr Total Vehicle Sales (ml) | Apr | 17.27M | 15.7M | 17.77M |
| 10:00AM | Mar Factory orders mm (%) | Mar | 4.3% | 4.5% | 0.6% |
| Monday, May 05 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Services PMI | Apr | 51.4 | 54.4 | |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Composite PMI | Apr | 51.2 | 53.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM N-Mfg PMI | Apr | 50.6 | 50.8 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Biz Activity | Apr | 55.9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Prices | Apr | 60.9 | ||
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Employment | Apr | 46.2 | ||
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
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