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Another ISM Report That Wasn't Weak Enough to Help Bonds
Another ISM Report That Wasn't Weak Enough to Help Bonds
The ISM Services PMI is this morning's key data, and arguably, the most relevant economic report of the week. Last week's ISM Manufacturing data wasn't strong, but it wasn't nearly as weak as traders were prepared to see. Today's services PMI is in the same vein--coming in higher than expected at the headline level and offering no relief on prices. The result is a modest extension of the selling pressure seen over the past few days. Yields are now back at the top of the March range. As the week continues, the Treasury auction cycle and Fed announcement are the remaining key events.
stronger overnight, but modestly weaker in early trading. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.324
Additional weakness after ISM data. 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.346. MBS down an eighth of a point.
Bouncing back a bit. MBS down only 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.329
10yr up 5.5bps at 4.366 and MBS down nearly a quarter point.
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday, May 05 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Services PMI | Apr | 50.8 | 51.4 | 54.4 |
| 9:45AM | Apr S&P Global Composite PMI | Apr | 50.6 | 51.2 | 53.5 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM N-Mfg PMI | Apr | 51.6 | 50.6 | 50.8 |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Biz Activity | Apr | 53.7 | 55.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Prices | Apr | 65.1 | 60.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Apr ISM Services Employment | Apr | 49 | 46.2 | |
| 1:00PM | 3-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 58 | |||
| Tuesday, May 06 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Mar Trade Gap (bl) | Mar | $-129B | $-122.7B | |
| 10:10AM | May IBD economic optimism | May | 50.2 | 49.1 | |
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs (%) | $75 million | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-Year Note Auction | 4.435% | |||
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 42 | |||
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