Selling Spree Continues, But Gently

Selling Spree Continues, But Gently

Bonds were focused on this morning's ISM Services Index with some traders waiting to see more evidence of economic fallout from tariff-related uncertainty. Instead, the index moved slightly higher and was rather uneventful by the time all sub-components were considered.  Not enough fuel there for bond bulls, so the bears kept the 3 day selling spree going, ultimately getting 10yr yields back over the 4.34 technical level that got so much play time in March. 

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Selling Spree Continues

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.10 +0.02 10YR 4.356% +0.011% 5/6/2025 4:43AM EST
The ISM Services PMI is this morning's key data, and arguably, the most relevant economic report of the week. Last week's ISM Manufacturing data wasn't strong, but it wasn't nearly as weak as traders were prepared to see. Today's services PMI is in the same vein--coming in higher than expected at the headline level and offering no relief on prices. The result is a modest extension of the selling pressure seen over the past few days. Yields are now back at the top of the March...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.90% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.22% +0.03% 5/5/2025
Mortgage rates faced a slight headwind on Monday as economic data caused weakness in the bond market. This would typically result in higher mortgage rates, but in today's case, the damage was minimal. One thing to keep in mind is that mortgage rates don't change in real time with the market. Lenders set rates once in the morning and only change them when the bond market experiences a certain threshold of volatility. A small handful of lenders met that threshold and ended u...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, May 06
8:30AM Mar Trade Gap (bl) Mar $-137B $-122.7B
10:10AM May IBD economic optimism May 50.2 49.1
10:30AM NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs (%) $75 million
1:00PM 10-Year Note Auction 4.435%
1:00PM 10-yr Note Auction (bl) 42
Wednesday, May 07
7:00AM May/02 MBA Purchase Index May/02 -1.0 146.6
7:00AM May/02 MBA Refi Index May/02 649.0
10:30AM May/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) May/02 -2.5M -2.696M
2:00PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.5% 4.5%
2:30PM Fed Press Conference
3:00PM Mar Consumer credit (bl) Mar $9.5B $-0.81B
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Whether you refer to it as "strong," or "not as bad as feared," this week's economic reports were better than the market was prepared for. The result is moderately higher rates. Interest rates are driven by movement in the bond market, and the bond market is always interested in economic data. Occasionally, the economic data can be boring enough or other events can be important enough to cause ... READ MORE