Matt Graham
Founder and CEO
MBS Live

Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed

Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed

Powell can't consider cutting or hiking at the moment, and he can't communicate the reasons for that much differently than he already has.  All that having been said, sometimes the market is just looking for an excuse to make a move on Fed days. So despite the fact that we don't expect any stunning revelations, volatility can't ever be ruled out.

Latest Video Analysis

10yr Auction to The Rescue

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.55 +0.22 10YR 4.270% -0.028% 5/7/2025 5:00PM EST
Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular reason. End of year Fed Funds Rate expectations have been almost perfectly flat so far this week after falling a quarter point in the last week of April, and then jumping more than a quarter point at the end of last week. That's a script for Powell's press conference today: a tale of two mandates. On the one hand, there a...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.86% -0.02% 15YR Fixed 6.19% -0.02% 5/7/2025
Mortgage rates were unchanged for the average lender this morning, thanks to a modest improvement in the bond market overnight.  Rates were on course to remain mostly flat until the afternoon's scheduled 10yr Treasury auction.  The market's reaction to the auction allowed many lenders to revise mortgage rates slightly lower. Mortgage rates are based on securities that are similar to US Treasuries in many ways. As such, when something happens that impacts Treasuri...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Wednesday, May 07
7:00AM May/02 MBA Purchase Index May/02 162.8 146.6
7:00AM May/02 MBA Refi Index May/02 721 649.0
10:30AM May/02 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) May/02 -2.032M -1.7M -2.696M
2:00PM Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
2:30PM Fed Press Conference
2:30PM Powell Press Conference
3:00PM Mar Consumer credit (bl) Mar $10.17B $9.5B $-0.81B
Thursday, May 08
8:30AM Apr/26 Continued Claims (ml) Apr/26 1890K 1916K
8:30AM May/03 Jobless Claims (k) May/03 230K 241K
10:00AM Mar Wholesale inventories mm (%) Mar 0.5% 0.5%
11:00AM Apr Consumer Inflation Expectations Apr 3.6%
1:00PM 30-Year Bond Auction 4.813%
1:00PM 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 25
Read My Latest Newsletter
Whether you refer to it as "strong," or "not as bad as feared," this week's economic reports were better than the market was prepared for. The result is moderately higher rates. Interest rates are driven by movement in the bond market, and the bond market is always interested in economic data. Occasionally, the economic data can be boring enough or other events can be important enough to cause ... READ MORE
Matt Graham
Founder and CEO
MBS Live