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Lots of Fed Speakers, But The Focus is on China
Lots of Fed Speakers, But The Focus is on China
A glance at today's economic calendar quickly reveals that Fed speeches are the only game in town in terms of scheduled events. But what can the Fed say that we didn't already hear from Powell on Wednesday, or 47 other times in other speeches over the past month? Maybe something, but probably nothing earth shattering. Instead, the market is on the edge of its seat as it waits for breaking news from US/China trade talks this weekend. Anticipation is greatly amplified by yesterday's UK/US deal. It's tricky business to clearly define a reaction function here (i.e. would bonds like higher tariffs due to the recession odds, or lower tariffs due to the inflation implications). Just as the Fed can only conclude their mandates are in tension, so too is the bond market's reaction function. Thus, we're left wait and see, because different investors will have different lines in the sand when it comes to which side of the function matters more.
Modestly weaker overnight, but moving back into positive territory now. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, May 09 | |||||
| 6:15AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 6:45AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| Monday, May 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 10:25AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4 to 6 yrs (%) | $75 million | |||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 2:00PM | Apr Federal budget, $ (bl) | Apr | $255B | $-161B | |
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