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Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
Bonds started weaker, flipped stronger mid-day, and then slowly moved back to unchanged levels by the close. Most of the day's volatility surrounded comments from a Swiss finance minister on this weekend's US/China trade talks (in Switzerland). The movement was very small in the bigger picture, possibly reflecting the very low odds for any sort of trade resolution like yesterday's UK/US deal. Still, over the weekend headlines may provide hints as to where the discussions are headed, and that could be worth some volatility as the coming week begins. A day later, CPI will provide the first big-picture assessment of April's inflation (still exceptionally early when it comes to potential tariff-related impacts, but not too early to see some impact).
Modestly weaker overnight, but moving back into positive territory now. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359
Mostly flat all morning. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.365
Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr yields up 0.7bps at 4.384
Flat Friday, But Volatility Risks Remain
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, May 09 | |||||
| 6:15AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 6:45AM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Fed Goolsbee Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 11:30AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Musalem Speech | ||||
| 7:45PM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| Monday, May 12 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 10:25AM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | NY Fed Treasury Purchases 4 to 6 yrs (%) | $75 million | |||
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 2:00PM | Apr Federal budget, $ (bl) | Apr | $255B | $-161B | |
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