Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter?
Is All News Bad News For Bonds? Will CPI Matter?
At times these day, it may seem like all news is bad news for bonds. Higher tariffs hurt us in mid April, and lower tariffs are hurting us now. There are reasons for the paradox. Higher tariffs initially helped quite a bit, but overly high tariffs caused a liquidation that hurt both sides of the market. The 90 day US/China pause announced this morning leaves tariffs high enough to put upward pressure on rates via the inflation channel, and low enough to rob rates of the bullish impulse from the recession channel. The lack of finality means we're waiting months and months before accurately understanding the impacts, and the big bounce in stocks suggests there's room to unwind previous "risk-off" trades in the meantime.
MBS up about an eighth and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.446
Is All News Bad News For Bonds?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, May 13 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Apr NFIB Business Optimism Index | Apr | 95.8 | 94.5 | 97.4 |
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Wednesday, May 14 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 5:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 7:00AM | May/09 MBA Purchase Index | May/09 | 162.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/09 MBA Refi Index | May/09 | 721 | ||
| 9:10AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | May/09 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/09 | -2.4M | -2.032M | |
| 5:40PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
