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Stock Gains Creating Bond Pain After Flat Response to CPI
Stock Gains Creating Bond Pain After Flat Response to CPI
Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the relevance of current price data, but the results were close enough to consensus that we might not have seen a big reaction anyway. Core CPI rose to 0.237 month over month, versus a 0.3 forecast. Annually, it was 2.8 vs 2.8 and unchanged from last month. Volume spiked modestly and bonds rallied for a few seconds before returning to flat levels. The meaningful movement has taken place after the 9:30am NYSE open with a classic risk-on trade. Friendly tariff headlines from China added to the case just after 10am.
MBS up about an eighth and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.446
Losing ground in the NYSE session. 10yr up 0.4bps at 4.474. MBS back to unchanged.
New lows. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.492
Is All News Bad News For Bonds?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, May 13 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Apr NFIB Business Optimism Index | Apr | 95.8 | 94.5 | 97.4 |
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Wednesday, May 14 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 5:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 7:00AM | May/09 MBA Purchase Index | May/09 | 162.8 | ||
| 7:00AM | May/09 MBA Refi Index | May/09 | 721 | ||
| 9:10AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | May/09 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/09 | -2.4M | -2.032M | |
| 5:40PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
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