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Stock Gains Creating Bond Pain After Flat Response to CPI
Stock Gains Creating Bond Pain After Flat Response to CPI
Heading into the session, we knew there was a high bar for CPI to have a positive influence on bonds with the future tariff landscape reducing the relevance of current price data, but the results were close enough to consensus that we might not have seen a big reaction anyway. Core CPI rose to 0.237 month over month, versus a 0.3 forecast. Annually, it was 2.8 vs 2.8 and unchanged from last month. Volume spiked modestly and bonds rallied for a few seconds before returning to flat levels. The meaningful movement has taken place after the 9:30am NYSE open with a classic risk-on trade. Friendly tariff headlines from China added to the case just after 10am.
Is All News Bad News For Bonds?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday, May 13 | |||||
| 6:00AM | Apr NFIB Business Optimism Index | Apr | 95.8 | 94.5 | 97.4 |
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr m/m CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y Headline CPI (%) | Apr | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 8:30AM | Apr y/y CORE CPI (%) | Apr | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Wednesday, May 14 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
| 5:15AM | Fed Waller Speech | ||||
| 7:00AM | May/09 MBA Purchase Index | May/09 | 166.5 | 162.8 | |
| 7:00AM | May/09 MBA Refi Index | May/09 | 718.1 | 721 | |
| 9:10AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 10:30AM | May/09 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | May/09 | 3.454M | -1M | -2.032M |
| 5:40PM | Fed Daly Speech | ||||
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