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Another "Just Because" Sell Off
Another "Just Because" Sell Off
This is getting old... and unfortunately, more prevalent. The bond market has been offering up more and more examples of reasonably brisk changes in yields without any obvious catalysts. This forces market watchers to concoct narratives to fit the price action (i.e. to say things that wouldn't be said if the mystery move was a rally). In other words, guesses and generalizations are the name of the game. What we do know is that a broad rotation out of bonds and into stocks is underway, even if stocks weren't a good example of that today. We know there were some headlines regarding potential Korea/Japan trade deals in the works. And we know the bond market isn't thrilled with the potential Treasury issuance implications associated with congressional budget headlines. All that having been said, the reality is probably significantly more complicated and boring than this small collection of usual suspects.
Another Just Because Sell-Off
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, May 15 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Apr | -0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Apr | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | May NY Fed Manufacturing | May | -9.20 | -10 | -8.10 |
| 8:30AM | May/10 Jobless Claims (k) | May/10 | 229K | 229K | 228K |
| 8:30AM | May/03 Continued Claims (ml) | May/03 | 1881K | 1890K | 1879K |
| 8:30AM | Apr Producer Prices (%) | Apr | -0.5% | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| 8:30AM | May Philly Fed Prices Paid | May | 59.80 | 51.00 | |
| 8:30AM | May Philly Fed Business Index | May | -4 | -11 | -26.4 |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Apr | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales (%) | Apr | 0.1% | 0% | 1.5% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Apr | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 8:40AM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 8:42AM | Powell Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Apr Industrial Production (%) | Apr | 0% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Business Inventories (% ) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | May NAHB housing market indx | May | 34 | 40 | 40 |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 2:05PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Friday, May 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Building Permits (ml) | Apr | 1.450M | 1.467M | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Export prices mm (%) | Apr | -0.5% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Import prices mm (%) | Apr | -0.4% | -0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Housing starts number mm (ml) | Apr | 1.37M | 1.324M | |
| 10:00AM | May Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | May | 6.5% | ||
| 10:00AM | May U Mich conditions | May | 59.6 | 59.8 | |
| 10:00AM | May Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | May | 4.4% | ||
| 10:00AM | May Consumer Sentiment (ip) | May | 53.4 | 52.2 | |
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