|
|
|
|
Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses
Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses
Wednesday's weakness was severely lacking in the scapegoat department. In other words, there were not big, obvious justifications for the spike in bond yields. Today's rally had a suggestion: perhaps the market was nervous about a potential update to the inflation framework in today's Powell speech. After all, it was the previous inflation framework update in 2020 (which basically concluded that rates could stay "lower for longer," even if inflation was elevated) that was responsible for a lot of drama over the past 3 years. Although the 8:30am economic data helped a bit, most of today's gains followed the 8:40am Powell speech. The absence of stock losses makes the Powell explanation all the more plausible (i.e. if bonds were rallying on weak data, we'd expect to see stocks lose some ground, and they didn't).
Modestly stronger overnight and catching a "no whammies" bid early. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr yield down 6 bps at 4.475
Best levels of the day with MBS up nearly half a point and 10yr down 8.5bps at 4.45
Still near best levels. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 8bps at 4.456
Today's Rally Helps Frame Yesterday's Selling
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, May 15 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Core Producer Prices MM (%) | Apr | -0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Core Producer Prices YY (%) | Apr | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | May NY Fed Manufacturing | May | -9.20 | -10 | -8.10 |
| 8:30AM | May/10 Jobless Claims (k) | May/10 | 229K | 229K | 228K |
| 8:30AM | May/03 Continued Claims (ml) | May/03 | 1881K | 1890K | 1879K |
| 8:30AM | Apr Producer Prices (%) | Apr | -0.5% | 0.2% | -0.4% |
| 8:30AM | May Philly Fed Prices Paid | May | 59.80 | 51.00 | |
| 8:30AM | May Philly Fed Business Index | May | -4 | -11 | -26.4 |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales Control Group MoM | Apr | -0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales (%) | Apr | 0.1% | 0% | 1.5% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | Apr | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 8:40AM | Fed Chair Powell Speech | ||||
| 8:42AM | Powell Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Apr Industrial Production (%) | Apr | 0% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| 10:00AM | Mar Business Inventories (% ) | Mar | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 10:00AM | May NAHB housing market indx | May | 34 | 40 | 40 |
| 12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
| 2:05PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| Friday, May 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Building Permits (ml) | Apr | 1.450M | 1.467M | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Export prices mm (%) | Apr | -0.5% | 0% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Import prices mm (%) | Apr | -0.4% | -0.1% | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Housing starts number mm (ml) | Apr | 1.37M | 1.324M | |
| 10:00AM | May Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | May | 6.5% | ||
| 10:00AM | May U Mich conditions | May | 59.6 | 59.8 | |
| 10:00AM | May Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | May | 4.4% | ||
| 10:00AM | May Consumer Sentiment (ip) | May | 53.4 | 52.2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
