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Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
Bonds began the day stronger after a gentle overnight rally. Selling commenced at 9:30am for the 4th day in a row and picked up slightly after the highest reading on inflation expectations since 1981. Even then, losses were modest at best and bonds were generally flat/unchanged until the very end of the day. With carefully considered timing, Moody's pulled the pin and walked away with 10 minutes left to trade. The grenade in this case was a downgrade of the US credit rating. This move is certainly in the ratings agencies' playbooks amid congressional budget battles, but most notably all the way back in 2011. Also of note, Moody's was the last of the big 3 to have the US at a triple A rating, so while it's not the craziest thing that ever happened to bonds, the timing made for some last minute selling ahead of the 5pm cut-off.
modestly stronger overnight and slowly eroding so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.403
Sideways at weakest levels. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up about half a bp at 4.437
additional weakness after Moody's downgrade. MBS down a quarter point on the day and 10yr up roughly 5bps at 4.479
Moody's Pulls Pin And Walks Away With 10 Minutes Left to Trade
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, May 16 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Apr Building Permits (ml) | Apr | 1.412M | 1.450M | 1.467M |
| 8:30AM | Apr Export prices mm (%) | Apr | 0.1% | -0.5% | 0% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Import prices mm (%) | Apr | 0.1% | -0.4% | -0.1% |
| 8:30AM | Apr Housing starts number mm (ml) | Apr | 1.361M | 1.37M | 1.324M |
| 10:00AM | May Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | May | 7.3% | 6.5% | |
| 10:00AM | May U Mich conditions | May | 57.6 | 59.6 | 59.8 |
| 10:00AM | May Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | May | 4.6% | 4.4% | |
| 10:00AM | May Consumer Sentiment (ip) | May | 50.8 | 53.4 | 52.2 |
| Monday, May 19 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - Ginnie Mae 30YR | ||||
| 8:30AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 8:45AM | Fed Jefferson Speech | ||||
| 8:45AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Apr CB Leading Index MoM (%) | Apr | -0.8% | -0.7% | |
| 1:15PM | Fed Logan Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
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