Mortgage Loan Originator
The Jeff Diaz Team - Barrett Financial Group L.L.C
License:
NMLS# 980070
Company NMLS# 181106

Budget Battle Hitting Bonds Amid Empty Calendar

Budget Battle Hitting Bonds Amid Empty Calendar

It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some small extent, corporate bond issuance has had an impact behind the scenes. It was lower than expected yesterday, which may have helped, and is picking back up today, which may be hurting. But the bigger pain aligns fairly clearly with various newswires surrounding the budget battle. In the most basic sense, bonds are protesting a lack of fiscal restraint. Nothing has been passed yet, but the concern is that a flurry of pressure from the White House could force a few hold outs to change their vote. Bonds wouldn't like that because as it stands, the bill would likely result in higher Treasury issuance.

Market Movement Recap
10:47 AM

Modestly weaker overnight with additional selling in the first 2 hours.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.492

Latest Video Analysis

(Un)surprising Reversal After Initial Weakness

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.63 -0.15 10YR 4.481% +0.031% 5/20/2025 3:34PM EST
It's a holiday-shortened week with a relatively empty economic calendar, thus forcing the bond market to find its movement cues elsewhere. To some small extent, corporate bond issuance has had an impact behind the scenes. It was lower than expected yesterday, which may have helped, and is picking back up today, which may be hurting. But the bigger pain aligns fairly clearly with various newswires surrounding the budget battle. In the most basic sense, bonds are protesting a...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.99% +0.00% 15YR Fixed 6.35% +0.03% 5/20/2025
Mortgage rates jumped sharply over the weekend as financial markets reacted to Moody's credit rating downgrade of the U.S.  News of the downgrade broke with only minutes left in Friday's market/business day, so most of the response played out when global markets opened again late last night. The initial reaction involved stock prices moving lower and bond yields moving higher (which can also be characterized as bond market weakness/losses/etc). In general, bond market...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Tuesday, May 20
9:00AM Fed Bostic Speech
9:00AM Fed Barkin Speech
9:30AM Fed Collins Speech
1:00PM Fed Musalem Speech
5:00PM Fed Kugler Speech
7:00PM Fed Daly Speech
7:00PM Fed Hammack Speech
Wednesday, May 21
7:00AM May/16 MBA Refi Index May/16 718.1
7:00AM May/16 MBA Purchase Index May/16 166.5
10:30AM May/16 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) May/16 -1.85M 3.454M
12:00PM Fed Barkin Speech
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 16
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The week began with some challenges for the rate market and a bounce for stocks following the US/China trade deal over the weekend. Stocks held their gains, but rates managed to move back down by the end of the week.  Thursday was the only important day in that regard with rates benefiting from weaker Retail Sales data and a well-received speech from Fed Chair Powell. Friday began on an ev... READ MORE
Mortgage Loan Originator
The Jeff Diaz Team - Barrett Financial Group L.L.C
License:
NMLS# 980070
Company NMLS# 181106