Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun

Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun

Vigilante justice!  Taking matters into one's own hands!  It's a sensational concept when applied to the bond market, but the term hasn't really done us many favors over the years.  It happened to work for a headline today because the term is as over-the-top as the notion that today's 20yr auction was some magical "ah ha" moment leading to a massive reprimand of congressional budget negotiations in both stocks and bonds. In actuality, the auction was fairly average--certainly nothing that warranted the stock/bond swoon, but if markets were looking for an excuse to sell (a smoking gun?), it was one of the only options. 

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Treasury Auction Blamed as Bond Vigilantes' Smoking Gun

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.11 +0.08 10YR 4.595% -0.006% 5/22/2025 6:57AM EST
MBS are now down half a point and have been struggling to make progress back in the other direction. 10yr yields are down 9.7bps at 4.583.  Both have stabilized sideways, but absent a sharper correction, we'll likely see more lenders pulling the trigger on reprices here.    READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.08% +0.09% 15YR Fixed 6.39% +0.04% 5/21/2025
Two days ago, mortgage rates began the day at 7.04% before mid-day improvements brought the average back down to 6.99%.  Today started out in a similar vein with the average lender at 7.05%, but the mid-day movement only made things worse. In terms of catalyst events, the bond market (and stock market, for that matter) swooned after a scheduled auction of 20yr Treasury bonds. The auction results were weaker than expected, signaling lower-than-expected demand. When de...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Thursday, May 22
8:30AM May/10 Continued Claims (ml) May/10 1,903K 1890K 1881K
8:30AM May/17 Jobless Claims (k) May/17 227K 230K 229K
9:45AM May S&P Global Manuf. PMI May 52.3 50.1 50.2
9:45AM May S&P Global Composite PMI May 52.1 50.6
9:45AM May S&P Global Services PMI May 52.3 50.8 50.8
10:00AM Apr Existing home sales (ml) Apr 4.00M 4.1M 4.02M
10:00AM Apr Exist. home sales % chg (%) Apr -0.5% -5.9%
1:00PM 10-yr TIPS Auction (bl) 18
2:00PM Fed Williams Speech
Friday, May 23
8:00AM Apr Building Permits (ml) Apr 1.412M 1.467M
10:00AM Apr New Home Sales (%) (%) Apr 7.4%
10:00AM Apr New Home Sales (ml) Apr 0.692M 0.724M
12:00PM Fed Cook Speech
2:00PM Memorial Day Weekend
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The week began with some challenges for the rate market and a bounce for stocks following the US/China trade deal over the weekend. Stocks held their gains, but rates managed to move back down by the end of the week.  Thursday was the only important day in that regard with rates benefiting from weaker Retail Sales data and a well-received speech from Fed Chair Powell. Friday began on an ev... READ MORE