A Little Early Excitement

A Little Early Excitement

Bonds began the day with a bit of excitement following Trump comments on raising EU tariffs to 50%.  The reaction was bigger than warranted based on the time of day/week as well as the fact that it's the Friday before a 3 day weekend. All that to say, markets were easier than normal to push around with seemingly relevant headlines.  By the time human traders were sorting things out, stocks and bonds were moving back in the opposite direction. The day ultimately ended with modest gains, but at levels that represent the 4th weakest close in 3 months. Ho hum in the bigger picture, but better than a sharp stick in the eye.

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A Little Early Excitement

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.34 +0.11 10YR 4.514% -0.022% 5/23/2025 1:59PM EST
Both stocks and bonds reversed course at the 9:30am NYSE open with bonds erasing most of the day's gains since then.  MBS are now nearly unchanged and down exactly a quarter point from the highs seen just before 9:30am. Lenders who priced early in the morning could already be considering negative reprices.   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 7.02% -0.05% 15YR Fixed 6.30% -0.07% 5/23/2025
The bond market is scheduled to close 3 hour earlier than normal today--a common practice surrounding federal holiday weekends. This means 3 fewer hours where trading volatility can have an impact on mortgage rate movement.  Said more simply: the day is basically over when it comes to potential intraday rate changes. There is almost always a bit of rate movement overnight as mortgage lenders react to a new market landscape each morning. Today's happened to be good news...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, May 23
8:10AM Apr Building Permits (ml) Apr 1.422M 1.412M 1.481M
10:00AM Apr New Home Sales (%) (%) Apr 10.9% 7.4%
10:00AM Apr New Home Sales (ml) Apr 0.743M 0.692M 0.724M
12:00PM Fed Cook Speech
2:00PM Memorial Day Weekend
Monday, May 26
12:00AM Memorial Day
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Markets began the week with a hangover from last Friday's late-day announcement of a US credit rating downgrade from Moody's with both stocks and bonds losing ground in early trading.  When bonds "lose ground," it means lower prices and higher yields (aka "rates"). While those losses were ultimately almost completely erased by the end of Monday, bonds couldn't find any reasons to keep... READ MORE