Caroline Roy
Branch Manager, Loan Officer
GoPrime Mortgage
License:
271203 MT, ID, CO, CA, ME, AK, WA,WY

Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility

Strongest Close of the Week After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility

There was always a reasonably high bar for today's econ data to have a big impact. When it came out right in line with expectations this morning, that ship sailed. That left the month-end trading environment as the most likely source of inspiration.  While we can certainly see some evidence of month-end volatility, it played out in a narrow range.  More importantly, it resolved with bonds at the strongest levels of the week, even if by only a small margin.  

Latest Video Analysis

Stronger Close After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.81 -0.19 10YR 4.441% +0.037% 6/2/2025 5:00PM EST
Today's PCE Price Index is one of the two main consumer inflation reports put out by the US government.  It's bigger and broader than CPI, but CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier than PCE.  CPI and other data also enable traders to forecast PCE much more accurately.  Due to the staleness and lower surprise potential, PCE tends to not garner as much of a reaction.  Today's installment was even less likely than normal to move the needle as traders are more interes...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.96% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.23% +0.02% 6/2/2025
It has turned out to be a surprisingly calm week for mortgage rates and, as of today, largely a victorious one, even if the victories have been modest.  Today's installment involves a 0.02% drop in the average top tier 30yr fixed rate. This brings the index to the lowest level of the week and a fairly decent 0.12% below last Friday's levels. Most of this week's movement took place on Tuesday morning after markets returned from the holiday weekend. Movement has been m...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 02
9:45AM May S&P Global Manuf. PMI May 52 52.3 50.2
10:00AM May ISM Manufacturing Employment May 46.8 46.5
10:00AM Apr Construction spending (%) Apr -0.4% 0.3% -0.5%
10:00AM May ISM Mfg Prices Paid May 69.4 70.2 69.8
10:00AM May ISM Manufacturing PMI May 48.5 49.5 48.7
10:15AM Fed Logan Speech
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
1:00PM Fed Chair Powell Speech
Tuesday, Jun 03
10:00AM Apr Factory orders mm (%) Apr -3.7% -3% 3.4%
10:00AM Apr JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Apr 3.194M 3.332M
10:00AM Apr USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Apr 7.391M 7.10M 7.192M
10:10AM Jun IBD economic optimism Jun 49.2 49.1 47.9
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
1:00PM Fed Cook Speech
3:30PM Fed Logan Speech
4:30PM May Total Vehicle Sales (ml) May 15.65M 16.3M 17.25M
Read My Latest Newsletter
In addition to being shorter than normal due to the Memorial Day holiday, there wasn't much meat on this week's event calendar--at least not as far as the rate market was concerned. Earnings releases caused some volatility in the stock market, but rates drifted sideways to slightly lower after a larger drop on Tuesday. Interestingly enough, Tuesday's drop was more to do with bond market improve... READ MORE
Caroline Roy
Branch Manager, Loan Officer
GoPrime Mortgage
License:
271203 MT, ID, CO, CA, ME, AK, WA,WY