Softer Start Despite Tame ISM Manufacturing Data

Softer Start Despite Tame ISM Manufacturing Data

The ISM Manufacturing PMI has more potential than most economic reports to cause a reaction in the bond market, even if it isn't perfectly consistent. As today's only big ticket data, it was well positioned to set the tone this morning. While it may not be doing that in a resounding fashion, one could still argue that the weaker result is least helping bonds avoid additional weakness.

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Stronger Close After Well-Contained Month-End Volatility

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.81 -0.19 10YR 4.441% +0.037% 6/2/2025 5:00PM EST
The first alert arrived amid minimal reprice risk due to morning rate sheet timing.  Specifically, most lenders priced for the morning before the 10am rally and thus weren't seeing huge losses despite MBS being down more than an eighth from highs. At this point, most lenders are seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness from their AM rate sheet print time with MBS down a quarter point on the day.  The weaker momentum looks to have leveled off with 10yr yie...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.96% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.23% +0.02% 6/2/2025
It has turned out to be a surprisingly calm week for mortgage rates and, as of today, largely a victorious one, even if the victories have been modest.  Today's installment involves a 0.02% drop in the average top tier 30yr fixed rate. This brings the index to the lowest level of the week and a fairly decent 0.12% below last Friday's levels. Most of this week's movement took place on Tuesday morning after markets returned from the holiday weekend. Movement has been m...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 02
9:45AM May S&P Global Manuf. PMI May 52 52.3 50.2
10:00AM May ISM Manufacturing Employment May 46.8 46.5
10:00AM Apr Construction spending (%) Apr -0.4% 0.3% -0.5%
10:00AM May ISM Mfg Prices Paid May 69.4 70.2 69.8
10:00AM May ISM Manufacturing PMI May 48.5 49.5 48.7
10:15AM Fed Logan Speech
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
1:00PM Fed Chair Powell Speech
Tuesday, Jun 03
10:00AM Apr Factory orders mm (%) Apr -3.7% -3% 3.4%
10:00AM Apr JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Apr 3.194M 3.332M
10:00AM Apr USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Apr 7.391M 7.10M 7.192M
10:10AM Jun IBD economic optimism Jun 49.2 49.1 47.9
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
1:00PM Fed Cook Speech
3:30PM Fed Logan Speech
4:30PM May Total Vehicle Sales (ml) May 15.65M 16.3M 17.25M
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In addition to being shorter than normal due to the Memorial Day holiday, there wasn't much meat on this week's event calendar--at least not as far as the rate market was concerned. Earnings releases caused some volatility in the stock market, but rates drifted sideways to slightly lower after a larger drop on Tuesday. Interestingly enough, Tuesday's drop was more to do with bond market improve... READ MORE