New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data

New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data

It's not that this morning's ISM data failed to help the bond market. In fact, it accounted for the highest volume of the day and the lowest yields of the day. But those yields were seized as an opportunity for seller to do what they'd already showed up to do earlier in the day. Bottom line, we had a bit of excess strength at the end of last week due to month-end trading and now a bit of a reversal as the new month gets underway. Yields are still nearer the lower end of the recent range, which makes today's modest correction all the less threatening. 

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New Month Selling Trumps ISM Data

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.81 -0.19 10YR 4.441% +0.037% 6/2/2025 5:00PM EST
The first alert arrived amid minimal reprice risk due to morning rate sheet timing.  Specifically, most lenders priced for the morning before the 10am rally and thus weren't seeing huge losses despite MBS being down more than an eighth from highs. At this point, most lenders are seeing at least an eighth of a point of weakness from their AM rate sheet print time with MBS down a quarter point on the day.  The weaker momentum looks to have leveled off with 10yr yie...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.96% +0.01% 15YR Fixed 6.23% +0.02% 6/2/2025
Mortgage rates have been in an exceptionally narrow range since last Tuesday with the 30yr fixed index hovering just under 7%.  The average lender is just a hair higher today versus last Friday, but still just under 7%. As always, the index is best used as a tool to track day over day changes in rates rather than outright levels.  Individual rate quotes can vary quite a bit depending on the scenario, lender, and discount points. Monday's economic data consisted...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 02
9:45AM May S&P Global Manuf. PMI May 52 52.3 50.2
10:00AM May ISM Manufacturing Employment May 46.8 46.5
10:00AM Apr Construction spending (%) Apr -0.4% 0.3% -0.5%
10:00AM May ISM Mfg Prices Paid May 69.4 70.2 69.8
10:00AM May ISM Manufacturing PMI May 48.5 49.5 48.7
10:15AM Fed Logan Speech
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
1:00PM Fed Chair Powell Speech
Tuesday, Jun 03
10:00AM Apr Factory orders mm (%) Apr -3.7% -3% 3.4%
10:00AM Apr JOLTs Job Quits (ml) Apr 3.194M 3.332M
10:00AM Apr USA JOLTS Job Openings (ml) Apr 7.391M 7.10M 7.192M
10:10AM Jun IBD economic optimism Jun 49.2 49.1 47.9
12:45PM Fed Goolsbee Speech
1:00PM Fed Cook Speech
3:30PM Fed Logan Speech
4:30PM May Total Vehicle Sales (ml) May 15.65M 16.3M 17.25M
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In addition to being shorter than normal due to the Memorial Day holiday, there wasn't much meat on this week's event calendar--at least not as far as the rate market was concerned. Earnings releases caused some volatility in the stock market, but rates drifted sideways to slightly lower after a larger drop on Tuesday. Interestingly enough, Tuesday's drop was more to do with bond market improve... READ MORE