Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM
Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM
We knew the onus was on weaker economic data to justify any decent drop in rates/yields and we know the first week of any given month has a high concentration of relevant reports and that today's slate is 2nd only to NFP day. Today's heavy hitters included ADP Employment and ISM Services. Both were weak--especially ADP. The employment component of the ISM report actually improved and that serves as a reminder that data doesn't always agree--especially if the sample size is a single month. If Friday's jobs report agrees with ADP, there's more room for improvement for rates. If NFP does like ISM's employment index and rises slightly from last month, bonds will likely have to give back some of today's gains. Future musings aside, it's nice to see the market is willing to do what it's supposed to do with this type of data.
Big Bond Rally After ADP and ISM
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jun 05 | |||||
| 7:30AM | May Challenger layoffs (k) | May | 93.816K | 105.441K | |
| 8:30AM | Apr Trade Gap (bl) | Apr | $-61.6B | $-94B | $-140.5B |
| 8:30AM | May/24 Continued Claims (ml) | May/24 | 1904K | 1910K | 1919K |
| 8:30AM | May/31 Jobless Claims (k) | May/31 | 247K | 235K | 240K |
| 12:00PM | Fed Kugler Speech | ||||
| 1:30PM | Fed Harker Speech | ||||
| Friday, Jun 06 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May Participation Rate | May | 62.4% | 62.6% | |
| 8:30AM | May Average earnings mm (%) | May | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | May Non Farm Payrolls (k) | May | 139K | 130K | 177K |
| 8:30AM | May Unemployment rate mm (%) | May | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Apr Consumer credit (bl) | Apr | $10.85B | $10.17B | |
