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Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
It's not necessarily a fun fact to face, but today's bond market sell-off was a perfectly logical reaction to the modest beat in NFP. But wait, what about the negative revisions?! Yes, it's still a logical reaction. Reasons for this are exhaustively discussed in today's video, but the short version is as follows. Wednesday's rally was largely about Wednesday's data carrying anecdotal implications for Friday's jobs report. When Friday's jobs report didn't deliver the goods, the rally was erased. Revisions didn't matter because last month's NFP was a big beat in and of itself and only revised to levels that were still higher than today's headline. Bottom line: NFP looks sideways at decent levels--not at all worthy of the concern suggested by Wednesday's reports and other generally weaker data over the past week.
Perfectly Logical Reaction to On-Target Data
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jun 06 | |||||
| 8:30AM | May Average earnings mm (%) | May | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | May Non Farm Payrolls (k) | May | 139K | 130K | 177K |
| 8:30AM | May Participation Rate | May | 62.4% | 62.6% | |
| 8:30AM | May Unemployment rate mm (%) | May | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bowman Speech | ||||
| 3:00PM | Apr Consumer credit (bl) | Apr | $17.87B | $10.85B | $10.17B |
| Monday, Jun 09 | |||||
| 10:00AM | Apr Wholesale inventories mm (%) | Apr | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 11:00AM | May Consumer Inflation Expectations | May | 3.6% | ||
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