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No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow?
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow?
After a slightly bumpy start for reasons that remain unknown, the bond market settled into an uneventful sideways grind that lasted through the 3pm CME close. Both MBS and Treasuries were effectively unchanged and the latter didn't give a second thought to a fairly weak 3yr Treasury auction. Trade headlines were less than meaty, but talks between the US and China are now said to potentially move into a 3rd day. That means tomorrow's calendar will be shared between trade-related headlines, a 10yr Treasury auction (more relevant than the 3yr) and CPI data. As far as this week is concerned, this is as action-packed as we've seen the calendar, although that's not saying too much given prevailing sentiment toward inflation data. Specifically, the market cares more about how it looks several months from now. It's not that it can't have an impact, but it would likely be dulled by the caveats.
No Drama Today. How About Tomorrow?
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jun 11 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 30YR | ||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/06 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/06 | 170.9 | 155.0 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/06 MBA Refi Index | Jun/06 | 707.4 | 611.8 | |
| 8:30AM | May m/m Headline CPI (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | May y/y Headline CPI (%) | May | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| 8:30AM | May m/m CORE CPI (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | May y/y CORE CPI (%) | May | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 10:30AM | Jun/06 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/06 | -3.644M | -2M | -4.304M |
| 1:00PM | 10-yr Note Auction (bl) | 39 | |||
| 2:00PM | May Federal budget, $ (bl) | May | $-316B | $-325B | $258B |
| Thursday, Jun 12 | |||||
| 8:30AM | Jun/07 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/07 | 248K | 240K | 247K |
| 8:30AM | May/31 Continued Claims (ml) | May/31 | 1956K | 1910K | 1904K |
| 8:30AM | May Core Producer Prices MM (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.3% | -0.4% |
| 8:30AM | May Core Producer Prices YY (%) | May | 3% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| 8:30AM | May Producer Prices (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.5% |
| 12:00PM | WASDE Report (%) | ||||
| 1:00PM | 30-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 22 | |||
| 1:00PM | 30-Year Bond Auction | 4.844% | 4.819% | ||
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