Opening Weaker Despite Israel/Iran Headlines

Opening Weaker Despite Israel/Iran Headlines

By 8pm last night, news of Israel's attack on Iran erased an entire week of stock market gains and pushed bond yields to the lowest levels in more than a month. Given the alarming nature of some of the headlines, it's only natural to assume that markets were only getting started with the "overnight trading makes no guarantees. Ultimately, with 10yr yields over 4.5% on Wednesday morning and under 4.40% right now, none of the volatility of the past 12 hours is worth over-analyzing.  Yields have challenged last week's floor and look to be tabling the idea of a breakout until further review.

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Thursday's Data Offered No Objection to Overnight Rally

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 99.04 -0.25 10YR 4.402% +0.039% 6/13/2025 5:00PM EST
Consumer Sentiment 60.5 vs 53.5 f'cast, 52.2 prev 1yr inflation expectations 5.1 vs 6.6 prev Consumer sentiment has been a sub-par market mover at best, recently, but this morning's installment may be an exception.   10yr yields have moved up from 4.38+ to 4.40+ since the data and MBS have lost another eighth of a point (bringing the total to a quarter point on the day). The "yeah but" is that the selling didn't start until 10:06am,...   READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.89% +0.04% 15YR Fixed 6.16% +0.02% 6/13/2025
Mortgage rates being offered today are only a hair lower for the average lender than they were on June 4th, but June 4th was the best day since early May.  In other words, today's average rate is the lowest in just over a month. This didn't happen by chance. The underlying bond market has been responding to economic data over the past two days.  Yesterday's consumer-focused inflation data delivered most of the benefit. Today's producer-focused inflation data esse...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Friday, Jun 13
10:00AM Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) Jun 5.1% 6.6%
10:00AM Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) Jun 4.1% 4.2%
10:00AM Jun U Mich conditions Jun 63.7 59.4 58.9
10:00AM Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) Jun 60.5 53.5 52.2
Monday, Jun 16
8:30AM Jun NY Fed Manufacturing Jun -6.7 -9.2
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
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For nearly 2 months, rates have been in limbo, stuck between the lower, more stable levels seen in March and the higher range seen at the beginning of the year. With many market participants waiting for more clarity on trade policies, it has been up to major economic data to make a case for any major moves in rates. The first week of any given month always has an action-packed economic calendar... READ MORE