Token Weakness Without a Cause

Token Weakness Without a Cause

Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no reason that can be easily proven.  That's been the case on each of the past two sessions  with 30yr yields moving almost 10bps higher between the two of them.  Geopolitical motivations have been nonexistent despite some efforts to link oil price concerns to bond weakness (not a solid thesis right now). Fiscal concerns may be having some small effect behind the scenes, but they're hard to substantiate based on the available headlines. The easiest approach would be to continue to classify the market as rangebound, in which case a pull-back makes sense given the lower yields seen last Thursday--especially with bigger ticket data/events over the next two days.

Market Movement Recap
09:48 AM

Choppy and slightly weaker overnight, but sideways and holding ground since then.   MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4 bps at 4.426

01:47 PM

After a decent rally into 10:30am, MBS are down an eighth from highs and 3 ticks (.09) on the day.  10yr up 4.6bps at 4.446

03:50 PM

Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down an eighth on the day and 10yr yields up 5.3bps at 4.454

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Token Weakness Without a Cause

MBS & Treasury Markets
UMBS 5.5 98.94 -0.10 10YR 4.452% +0.050% 6/16/2025 5:00PM EST
MBS had a decent rally into 10:30am but have been losing ground steadily since noon.  Chatter surrounds the anticipation over the Senate unveiling its version of the spending bill.  10yr yields are up 4.4bps at 4.445 MBS are down an eighth on the day and 5 ticks (.16) from the highs.  Lenders who priced near those highs could technically be considering negative reprices.     READ MORE
Today's Mortgage Rates
30YR Fixed 6.91% +0.02% 15YR Fixed 6.17% +0.01% 6/16/2025
While there's been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn't been much by way of inspiration for the bond market. Bonds (and, thus, rates) have moved nonetheless.   Perhaps it was the lower rates achieved last Thursday that prompted a pullback, or perhaps traders are pricing in some caution ahead of this week's data and Fed announcement. Either way, bonds lost ground on Friday and again today--both times with l...   READ MORE
Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Actual Forecast Prior
Monday, Jun 16
8:30AM Jun NY Fed Manufacturing Jun -16.00 -5.5 -9.20
12:00PM NOPA Crush Report (%)
1:00PM 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) 13
Tuesday, Jun 17
12:00AM Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR
8:30AM May Export prices mm (%) May -0.1% 0.1%
8:30AM May Retail Sales Control Group MoM May 0.3% -0.2%
8:30AM May Import prices mm (%) May -0.2% 0.1%
8:30AM May Retail Sales (%) May -0.7% 0.1%
8:30AM May Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) May 0.1% 0.1%
9:15AM May Industrial Production (%) May 0.1% 0%
10:00AM Apr Business Inventories (% ) Apr 0% 0.1%
10:00AM Jun NAHB housing market indx Jun 36 34
1:00PM 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) 23
8:00PM International Monetary Market (IMM) Date (%)
Read My Latest Newsletter
The juxtaposition of last week's jobs report and this week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) created a fair amount of volatility, but for fans of low mortgage rates, it's too soon to care. Whether we're talking about interest rates in general or the Federal Reserve, both are sensitive to any major changes in the economy and inflation. Among economic data, last week's jobs report is the most capable ... READ MORE