Token Weakness Without a Cause
Token Weakness Without a Cause
Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no reason that can be easily proven. That's been the case on each of the past two sessions with 30yr yields moving almost 10bps higher between the two of them. Geopolitical motivations have been nonexistent despite some efforts to link oil price concerns to bond weakness (not a solid thesis right now). Fiscal concerns may be having some small effect behind the scenes, but they're hard to substantiate based on the available headlines. The easiest approach would be to continue to classify the market as rangebound, in which case a pull-back makes sense given the lower yields seen last Thursday--especially with bigger ticket data/events over the next two days.
Choppy and slightly weaker overnight, but sideways and holding ground since then. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4 bps at 4.426
After a decent rally into 10:30am, MBS are down an eighth from highs and 3 ticks (.09) on the day. 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.446
Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down an eighth on the day and 10yr yields up 5.3bps at 4.454
Token Weakness Without a Cause
Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monday, Jun 16 | |||||
8:30AM | Jun NY Fed Manufacturing | Jun | -16.00 | -5.5 | -9.20 |
12:00PM | NOPA Crush Report (%) | ||||
1:00PM | 20-Yr Bond Auction (bl) | 13 | |||
Tuesday, Jun 17 | |||||
12:00AM | Roll Date - UMBS 15YR, Ginnie Mae 15YR | ||||
8:30AM | May Export prices mm (%) | May | -0.1% | 0.1% | |
8:30AM | May Retail Sales Control Group MoM | May | 0.3% | -0.2% | |
8:30AM | May Import prices mm (%) | May | -0.2% | 0.1% | |
8:30AM | May Retail Sales (%) | May | -0.7% | 0.1% | |
8:30AM | May Retail Sales (ex-autos) (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
9:15AM | May Industrial Production (%) | May | 0.1% | 0% | |
10:00AM | Apr Business Inventories (% ) | Apr | 0% | 0.1% | |
10:00AM | Jun NAHB housing market indx | Jun | 36 | 34 | |
1:00PM | 5-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 23 | |||
8:00PM | International Monetary Market (IMM) Date (%) |