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Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement
Dot Plot in Focus With Fed's "No Cut" Announcement
Bonds lost some ground after this morning's economic data, arguably in response to the Retail Sales control group beating its forecast. Higher-than-expected import prices could also have played a supporting role, but the selling was too modest to worry about perfectly allocating the blame. It was also erased by an afternoon rally that was best explained by general risk-off vibes surrounding geopolitical headlines. Here too, we're not seeing anything too compelling in terms of trading justification. The best bet on that front would be Wednesday's dot plot from the Fed (the chart showing each Fed member's rate outlook over the next few years). That will be released at 2pm with the "no cut" announcement.
Dot Plot is The Fed Day Focus
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday, Jun 18 | |||||
| 7:00AM | Jun/13 MBA Refi Index | Jun/13 | 692.4 | 707.4 | |
| 7:00AM | Jun/13 MBA Purchase Index | Jun/13 | 165.8 | 170.9 | |
| 8:30AM | May Housing starts number mm (ml) | May | 1.256M | 1.36M | 1.361M |
| 8:30AM | May Building Permits (ml) | May | 1.393M | 1.43M | 1.422M |
| 8:30AM | Jun/07 Continued Claims (ml) | Jun/07 | 1945K | 1940K | 1956K |
| 8:30AM | Jun/14 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/14 | 245K | 245K | 248K |
| 10:30AM | Jun/13 Crude Oil Inventory (ml) | Jun/13 | -11.473M | -2.3M | -3.644M |
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Longer | 3% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 2nd Yr | 3.1% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - Current | 3.9% | |||
| 2:00PM | Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr | 3.4% | |||
| 2:00PM | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.5% | 4.5% | ||
| 2:00PM | FOMC Economic Projections | ||||
| 2:30PM | Fed Press Conference | ||||
| Thursday, Jun 19 | |||||
| 12:00AM | Juneteenth | ||||
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