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Tons of Data, But Not a Ton of Movement
Tons of Data, But Not a Ton of Movement
Visually, the number of line items in this morning's economic calendar may seem daunting. In fact, several of the reports sound like they should matter to the seasoned bond watcher (Durable Goods, GDP, etc). But as it stands, the biggest hour of trading volume this morning fell short of comparable examples from 3 of the past 4 sessions (sessions that had far less to offer in terms of calendar events). In addition, there are some mixed signals in the data that help offset bullish/bearish implications, thus leaving us fairly neutral to start the day.
Bonds have moved just a hair weaker in response with MBS back to unchanged after being up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr back to unchanged after being down just over 1bp at 4.283.
Quick reversal back into positive territory. MBS up 4 ticks (.125) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.265
Best levels of the day ahead of 7yr auction. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.265
Mid Day Reversal Leaves Bonds Slightly Stronger
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jun 26 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Q1 Corporate profits (% ) | Q1 | -3.3% | -3.6% | 5.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jun/14 Continued Claims (ml) | Jun/14 | 1974K | 1950K | 1945K |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP deflator (%) | Q1 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | -3.1% | -2.9% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | May Durable goods (%) | May | 16.4% | 8.5% | -6.3% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q1 | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | May Core CapEx (%) | May | 1.7% | 0.1% | -1.3% |
| 8:30AM | May Wholesale inventories mm (%) | May | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | -0.5% | -0.2% | 2.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jun/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/21 | 236K | 245K | 245K |
| 9:00AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | May Pending Home Sales (%) | May | 1.8% | -0.3% | -6.3% |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 1:15PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| Friday, Jun 27 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | May Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | May | 2.6% | 2.5% | |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE (m/m) (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jun U Mich conditions | Jun | 63.7 | 58.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jun | 5.1% | 6.6% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jun | 4.1% | 4.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jun | 60.5 | 52.2 | |
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