|
|
|
|
|
|
|
The Trend is Friendly For Now
The Trend is Friendly For Now
A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore." All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past 3-4 days and today was just another confirmation of that shift. What we can't know is when the next show of resistance will happen and whether that will merely be a speed bump before additional gains, or a sign to circle the wagons and get sideways again. Data wasn't necessarily a huge factor in today's improvement although it didn't hurt. Bonds have an underlying vigor for other reasons, as evidenced by a solid 7yr Treasury auction today, despite yields being at the lowest levels in more than a month. Today's video discusses some possible reasons for that.
Bonds have moved just a hair weaker in response with MBS back to unchanged after being up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr back to unchanged after being down just over 1bp at 4.283.
Quick reversal back into positive territory. MBS up 4 ticks (.125) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.265
Best levels of the day ahead of 7yr auction. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.265
Best levels of the day with MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr yields down 3.6bps at 4.252
The Trend is Friendly For Now
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, Jun 26 | |||||
| 8:00AM | Fed Barkin Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | Q1 Corporate profits (% ) | Q1 | -3.3% | -3.6% | 5.9% |
| 8:30AM | Jun/14 Continued Claims (ml) | Jun/14 | 1974K | 1950K | 1945K |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP deflator (%) | Q1 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP Final Sales (%) | Q1 | -3.1% | -2.9% | 3.3% |
| 8:30AM | May Durable goods (%) | May | 16.4% | 8.5% | -6.3% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 Core PCE Prices QoQ Final | Q1 | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% |
| 8:30AM | May Core CapEx (%) | May | 1.7% | 0.1% | -1.3% |
| 8:30AM | May Wholesale inventories mm (%) | May | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | Q1 GDP (%) | Q1 | -0.5% | -0.2% | 2.4% |
| 8:30AM | Jun/21 Jobless Claims (k) | Jun/21 | 236K | 245K | 245K |
| 9:00AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | May Pending Home Sales (%) | May | 1.8% | -0.3% | -6.3% |
| 1:00PM | 7-Yr Note Auction (bl) | 44 | |||
| 1:15PM | Fed Barr Speech | ||||
| 7:00PM | Fed Kashkari Speech | ||||
| Friday, Jun 27 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | May Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | May | 2.6% | 2.5% | |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE (m/m) (%) | May | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jun U Mich conditions | Jun | 63.7 | 58.9 | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jun | 5.1% | 6.6% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jun | 4.1% | 4.2% | |
| 10:00AM | Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jun | 60.5 | 52.2 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
