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The Trend is Friendly For Now
The Trend is Friendly For Now
A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend." We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore." All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past 3-4 days and today was just another confirmation of that shift. What we can't know is when the next show of resistance will happen and whether that will merely be a speed bump before additional gains, or a sign to circle the wagons and get sideways again. Data wasn't necessarily a huge factor in today's improvement although it didn't hurt. Bonds have an underlying vigor for other reasons, as evidenced by a solid 7yr Treasury auction today, despite yields being at the lowest levels in more than a month. Today's video discusses some possible reasons for that.
The Trend is Friendly For Now
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jun 27 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | May Personal Income (%) | May | -0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 8:30AM | May Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | May | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | May | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE (m/m) (%) | May | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 9:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jun U Mich conditions | Jun | 64.8 | 63.7 | 58.9 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jun | 5% | 5.1% | 6.6% |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jun | 4% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| 10:00AM | Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jun | 60.7 | 60.5 | 52.2 |
| Monday, Jun 30 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Jun Chicago PMI | Jun | 42.7 | 40.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Golsbee Speech | ||||
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