Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
After a decent mid-day recovery, bonds gave up their gains heading into the 3pm close. It's a level of weakness that demands no explanation in the bigger picture--especially on a Friday afternoon of a week with a rally on every single previous day. Nonetheless, one could make a case for the bump by pointing to things like Senate moving closer to a spending bill vote with reports suggesting slightly more spending than before. Separate headlines involved Trump declaring an end to trade negotiations with Canada--something that might imply inflation pressure to some traders. Friday aside, the week's theme was one of lower Fed Funds Rate expectations and that will either be amplified or called into question by the key economic reports next week (as well as CPI the following week).
Slightly weaker overnight and sideways to slightly stronger after data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.254
10yr yields are up 5bps at 4.286 and MBS are down 6 ticks on the day (0.19) and an eighth of a point from AM highs.
Decent recovery with 10yr nearly unchanged at 3.722 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).
Modest Friday Bounce Does Little to Alter Bigger Picture
| Time | Event | Period | Actual | Forecast | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday, Jun 27 | |||||
| 7:30AM | Fed Williams Speech | ||||
| 8:30AM | May Personal Income (%) | May | -0.4% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| 8:30AM | May Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (%) | May | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (%) | May | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
| 8:30AM | May Core PCE (m/m) (%) | May | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 9:15AM | Fed Hammack Speech | ||||
| 9:15AM | Fed Cook Speech | ||||
| 10:00AM | Jun U Mich conditions | Jun | 64.8 | 63.7 | 58.9 |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 1y Inflation (%) | Jun | 5% | 5.1% | 6.6% |
| 10:00AM | Jun Sentiment: 5y Inflation (%) | Jun | 4% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| 10:00AM | Jun Consumer Sentiment (ip) | Jun | 60.7 | 60.5 | 52.2 |
| Monday, Jun 30 | |||||
| 9:45AM | Jun Chicago PMI | Jun | 42.7 | 40.5 | |
| 10:00AM | Fed Bostic Speech | ||||
| 1:00PM | Fed Golsbee Speech | ||||
